@InProceedings{TorresFerr:2008:SePaCo,
               author = "Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Ferreira, Nelson Jesus",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)}",
                title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de um evento de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         intensa utilizando o modelo ETA: sensibilidade {\`a} 
                         parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o convectiva",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2008",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 15.",
             keywords = "parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o convectiva, Eta, Betts-Miller, Janjic, 
                         Kain-Fritsch.",
             abstract = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es num{\'e}ricas foram realizadas para 
                         avaliar a previsibilidade da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo 
                         Eta com diferentes esquemas de parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         convectiva (Betts-Miller-Janjic e Kain-Fritsch), para um caso de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa ocorrida no dia 24 de outubro de 
                         2007 na regi{\~a}o sudeste do Brasil. A precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         foi avaliada atrav{\'e}s de dados observados, utilizando-se os 
                         {\'{\i}}ndices ETS, BIAS, POD e RAF. As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         com KF apresentaram as maiores diferen{\c{c}}as entre 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o e observa{\c{c}}{\~a}o. O modelo com BMJ 
                         superestimou as chuvas de intensidade fraca e moderada e 
                         subestimou {\`a}s de intensidade forte. As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         com KF obtiveram melhores desempenhos para as chuvas fraca e 
                         moderada, por{\'e}m superestimaram bastante as 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es com valores acima de 38 mm. Apesar de 
                         nenhum dos esquemas serem melhor do que o outro em todos os 
                         par{\^a}metros analisados, podemos concluir que BMJ foi o mais 
                         adequado para simular este caso, devido aos menores valores de RAF 
                         e aos maiores valores de ETS e POD. Este resultado possivelmente 
                         se deve ao fato de que, apesar de KF apresentar uma 
                         f{\'{\i}}sica mais detalhada dos processos convectivos, ele 
                         ainda n{\~a}o sofreu tantos ajustes para a regi{\~a}o de estudo 
                         como BMJ que est{\'a} implementada na vers{\~a}o operacional de 
                         tempo. ABSTRACT: Simulations run by Eta Model over Southeast of 
                         Brazil were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability 
                         in an intense precipitation event which occurred on 24 October 
                         2007 using different schemes to produce convective precipitation: 
                         Betts-Miller-Janjic and Kain-Fritsch. Precipitation was evaluated 
                         against surface observations using Equitable Threat Score, Bias 
                         Score, Probability of Detection and False Alarm Rate. Simulations 
                         using KF showed higher differences between simulation and 
                         observation than BMJ. Model with BMJ overestimated weak and 
                         moderated precipitations and underestimated strong precipitations 
                         rate. KF simulations showed better results for weak and moderated 
                         precipitations, but overestimated precipitations rate larger than 
                         38 mm. Despite any scheme was better than de other for every 
                         analyzed parameter, we can conclude that, for this case studied, 
                         Eta model with BMJ was the most appropriated for simulating 
                         precipitation over Southeast of Brazil, due to smaller values of 
                         FAR and bigger values of ETS and POD. It is possible that these 
                         results are related to the fact that, even though KF represents 
                         better the physics involved on convective process, it still not 
                         has several adjustments as BMJ used in the operational version.",
  conference-location = "S{\~a}o Paulo",
      conference-year = "24-29 ago",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "SBMET",
           targetfile = "torres_simula{\c{c}}ao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}