@InProceedings{OliveiraDereChan:2008:ReAvPr,
               author = "Oliveira, Nath{\'a}lia Silva de and Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira 
                         and Chan, Chou Sin",
          affiliation = "{} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE/CPTEC)}",
                title = "Refinamento e avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o das previs{\~o}es do modelo 
                         ETA/CPTEC",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2008",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 15.",
             keywords = "Modelo Eta,, avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Eta Model, weather 
                         forecasting, forecast evaluation.",
             abstract = "Neste trabalho s{\~a}o avaliadas as previs{\~o}es do modelo Eta 
                         para S{\~a}o Miguel do Gostoso (RN) no per{\'{\i}}odo de 
                         13/10/2005 a 01/11/2005. S{\'e}ries temporais e ciclos diurnos 
                         m{\'e}dios s{\~a}o apresentados para as previs{\~o}es de 24, 48 
                         e 72-h das vari{\'a}veis, temperatura do ar a 2 metros, umidade 
                         espec{\'{\i}}fica a 2 m e para a press{\~a}o atmosf{\'e}rica 
                         {\`a} superf{\'{\i}}cie. Os resultados mostram que o modelo Eta 
                         n{\~a}o representa adequadamente as grandes amplitudes 
                         di{\'a}rias tanto para a temperatura do ar quanto para a umidade 
                         espec{\'{\i}}fica, como pode ser visto pelas s{\'e}ries 
                         temporais dessas vari{\'a}veis. Por{\'e}m, o ciclo diurno 
                         m{\'e}dio da temperatura {\'e} bem reproduzido, especialmente na 
                         previs{\~a}o de 48-h, apresentando alta correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         (CORR=88%) e baixos valores de raiz do erro quadr{\'a}tico 
                         m{\'e}dio (RMSE=1,6ºC). O modelo mostra erros na previs{\~a}o de 
                         umidade espec{\'{\i}}fica (RMSE maior do que o desvio 
                         padr{\~a}o) e baixa CORR (menor do que 25%). Para a press{\~a}o 
                         atmosf{\'e}rica o modelo mostra alta CORR, especialmente para as 
                         previs{\~o}es de 24-h (CORR=65%), apesar dos altos valores de 
                         RMSE (5 hPa). ABSTRACT: In this work Eta model forecasts are 
                         evaluated against observations taken at S{\~a}o Miguel do Gostoso 
                         city (RN), for the period between 13 October and 1 November 2005. 
                         Time series and mean diurnal cycles of 2-m temperature and 
                         specific humidity and surface pressure are shown for 24, 48 and 
                         72-h forecasts. The results show that Eta model does not represent 
                         accurately both temperature and specific humidity large 
                         amplitudes, as indicated by their time series. Although, the 
                         temperature mean diurnal cycle is well reproduced, specially at 
                         48-h forecasts, with high correlation, 0,88, and small root mean 
                         square error (RMSE=1,6ºC). The model shows error in specific 
                         humidity forecasts (RMSE greater than standard deviation) and 
                         small, less than 0,25. For atmospheric pressure, the forecasts 
                         show high correlation with observations, especially at 24-h 
                         forecast, but high RMSE (5 hPa)..",
  conference-location = "S{\~a}o Paulo",
      conference-year = "24-29 ago",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "SBMET",
           targetfile = "OLIVEIRA_REFINAMENTO.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}