@ElectronicSource{ShongweVaVaBoCoVa::SoAf,
             abstract = "This study investigates likely changes in mean and extreme 
                         precipitation over southern Africa in response to changes in 
                         radiative forcing using an ensemble of global climate models 
                         prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 
                         Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation is 
                         defined in terms of 10-yr return levels obtained by inverting a 
                         generalized Pareto distribution fitted to excesses above a 
                         predefined high threshold. Both present (control) and future 
                         climate precipitation extremes are estimated. The 
                         future-to-control climate ratio of 10-yr return levels is then 
                         used as an indicator for the likely changes in extreme seasonal 
                         precipitation. A Bayesian approach to multimodel ensembling is 
                         adopted. The relative weights assigned to each of the model 
                         simulations is determined from bias, convergence, and correlation. 
                         Using this method, the probable limits of the changes in mean and 
                         extreme precipitation are estimated from their posterior 
                         distribution. Over the western parts of southern Africa, an 
                         increase in the severity of dry extremes parallels a statistically 
                         significant decrease in mean precipitation during austral summer 
                         months. A notable delay in the onset of the rainy season is found 
                         in almost the entire region. An early cessation is found in many 
                         parts. This implies a statistically significant shortening of the 
                         rainy season. A substantial reduction in moisture influx from the 
                         southwestern Indian Ocean during austral spring is projected. This 
                         and the preaustral spring moisture deficits are possible 
                         mechanisms delaying the rainfall onset in southern Africa. A 
                         possible offshore (northeasterly) shift of the tropicaltemperate 
                         cloud band is consistent with more severe droughts in the 
                         southwest of southern Africa and enhanced precipitation farther 
                         north in Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique. This study shows 
                         that changes in the mean vary on relatively small spatial scales 
                         in southern Africa and differ between seasons. Changes in extremes 
                         often, but not always, parallel changes in the mean 
                         precipitation.",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
          affiliation = "Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands 
                         and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, 
                         Netherlands and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De 
                         Bilt, Netherlands and Institute for Marine and Atmospheric 
                         Research, Utrecht, Utrecht University, Netherlands and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Red Cross/Red Crescent 
                         Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands",
               author = "Shongwe, M. E. and Van Oldenborgh, G. J. and Van Den Hurk, B. J. 
                         J. M and Boer, B. de and Coelho, C. A. S. and Van Aalst, M. K.",
             keywords = "**.",
             language = "en",
       lastupdatedate = "2009-06-23",
            publisher = "Instituto and Nacional and de and Pesquisas and Espaciais",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP8W/35H3CEL",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP8W/35H3CEL",
           targetfile = "v1.pdf",
                title = "Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa 
                         under Global Warming. Part I: Southern Africa",
         typeofmedium = "On-line",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}