@Article{CoelhoGooa:2009:ElNiTr,
               author = "Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Gooard, Lisa",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/INPE} and 
                         {International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) 
                         The Earth Institute at Columbia University}",
                title = "El Niņo-induced tropical droughts in climate change projections",
              journal = "Journal of Climate",
                 year = "2009",
               volume = "22",
               number = "23",
                pages = "6456--6476",
                month = "dec.",
             keywords = "teleconnections, prediction, simulation, Pacific, models, cycle.",
             abstract = "El Niņo brings widespread drought (i.e. precipitation deficit) to 
                         the tropics. Stronger or more frequent El Niņo events in the 
                         future and/or their intersection with local changes in the mean 
                         climate towards a future with reduced precipitation would 
                         exacerbate drought risk in highly vulnerable tropical areas. 
                         Projected changes in El Niņo characteristics and associated 
                         teleconnections are investigated between the 20th and 21st 
                         centuries. For climate change models that reproduce realistic 
                         oceanic variability of the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 
                         phenomenon, results suggest no robust changes in the strength or 
                         frequency of El Niņo events. These models exhibit realistic 
                         patterns, magnitude, and spatial extent of El Niņo-induced drought 
                         patterns in the 20th century, and the teleconnections are not 
                         projected to change in the 21st century; although a possible 
                         slight reduction in the spatial extent of droughts is indicated 
                         over the tropics as a whole. All model groups investigated show 
                         similar changes in mean precipitation for the end of the 21st 
                         century, with increased precipitation projected between 10oS and 
                         10oN, independent of the ability of the models to replicate ENSO 
                         variability. These results suggest separability between climate 
                         change and ENSO-like climate variability in the tropics. As El 
                         Niņo induced precipitation drought patterns are not projected to 
                         change, the observed 20th century variability is used in 
                         combination with model projected changes in mean precipitation for 
                         assessing year-to-year drought risk in the 21st century. Results 
                         suggest more locally consistent changes in regional drought risk 
                         among models with good fidelity in reproducing ENSO variability.",
                  doi = "10.1175/2009JCLI3185.1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3185.1",
                 issn = "0894-8755",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Coelho_elnino.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}