@InProceedings{AguiarOmSoAsAnLa:2012:CoEmRe,
author = "Aguiar, A. P. D. and Ometto, J. P. and Soler, L. S. and Assis, T.
and Andrade, P. R. and Lapolla, D.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {UNESP/Rio Claro}",
title = "Scenarios for the Amazonia 2050: combining emission reductions and
social development",
booktitle = "Abstracts...",
year = "2012",
organization = "Planet Under Pressure Conference, (PUP).",
keywords = "land use, scenario, Amazonia, modeling.",
abstract = "Deforestation in Amazonia has decreased significantly in the last
five years, from around 27,772 km2 in 2004 to around 6,000 km2 in
2010. This decrease has been attributed to a net of
governmental/civil society actions, and commodities markets
related factors. In spite of this, there is an enormous
uncertainty about the fate of the forest. In the next decades, we
can expect an increase in food and biofuel demands associated to
global population growth and consumption patterns, which can
induce both direct and indirect deforestation. Ambitious
infra-structure plans also may induce occupation of unprotected
areas. Possible climate change can affect the region through
intensification of droughts and vulnerability to forest fires. In
order to explore future scenarios for the region, there is a need
to understand which institutional, political and economical
conditions at multiple levels, from national to local, will be
able to act as a counterforce to the commodities market pressure,
reducing emissions while bringing social development. We present
the preliminary results of a project aiming at discussing
sustainability scenarios for the Amazonia, combining a qualitative
scenario methodology and two spatially-explicit quantitative
modeling frameworks: one for land use change (LuccME) and another
for deforestation emission estimates (INPE-EM), both representing
the heterogeneity of land change processes in the region. A panel
of expert constructed storylines quantified in terms of pasture,
annual/perennial crops, and secondary vegetation trajectories.
INPE-EM is coupled to LuccME to estimate emission reductions
resulting from spatial projections of land use trajectories under
three different scenarios: (a) emission reductions without social
development; (b) sustainability and social development; (c) return
to uncontrolled deforestation. Initial modeling results showed
that emission reduction in (a) and (b) can be of the order of 6
GtCO2 or more, depending on socioeconomic incentives to the
expansion and permanence of secondary vegetation as sinks of
carbon.",
conference-location = "London",
conference-year = "26-29 Mar. 2012",
urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}