@InProceedings{AlvesMaBeJoKaCh:2009:EnClMo,
               author = "Alves, Linconl Muniz and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio and 
                         Betts, Richard and Jones, Richard and Kay, Gillian and Chan, Sin 
                         Chou",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Met Office Hadley 
                         Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley 
                         Centre} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Large-scale changes in precipitation and temperature in South 
                         America under climate change - ensemble climate model projections 
                         and uncertainty assessments",
                 year = "2009",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 9.",
             keywords = "x.",
             abstract = "Following the extensive conclusions from the IPCC 
                         (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment 
                         Report and other reports (including INPEs report 2007 - 
                         ww.cptec.inpe.br/mudancas_climaticas) we have credible evidence 
                         that the climate is changing across the world. But it is important 
                         to note that while the current versions of atmosphereocean general 
                         circulation models (AOGCMs) have the ability to simulate well the 
                         state of the global climate at the large and continental scales, 
                         there are significant variations between these models in future 
                         climate projections of precipitation and temperature changes at 
                         the regional scale, including those for South America. One of the 
                         top priorities for narrowing gaps between current knowledge and 
                         policymaking needs is the quantitative assessment of the 
                         sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of human and 
                         natural systems to climate change. Vital for such assessments are 
                         reliable estimates of current and future climate variability at 
                         the regional scale which can be readily used to assess the 
                         sensitivity of these systems to climate change. Often an important 
                         requirement for these assessments is for the climate data to be 
                         provided at high spatial and temporal resolution, and the main 
                         method for providing these data regionally is dynamical 
                         downscaling, i.e. output from global climate models is used to 
                         drive a high resolution regional climate model. Regional models 
                         1provide improved spatial detail, but in order to improve 
                         reliability of projections, it is essential to run multiple 
                         realizations, to take uncertainties into account. There has been 
                         much effort to quantify the range of uncertainties that are known 
                         to exist in global climate model projections and dynamical 
                         downscaling allows a detailed exploration of these. Important for 
                         the interpretation of any downscaled projections is to assess the 
                         regional-scale climate and climate changes in the global 
                         projections. This can guide the selection of suitable global 
                         models for driving the regional model where the quality of global 
                         model control simulations and the identification of global model 
                         large-scale projected changes which are considered reliable would 
                         be relevant information. As a starting point for this, in the 
                         present paper, we present the results of an ensemble simulation of 
                         the HadCM3 climate model, where each ensemble member incorporates 
                         different but plausible versions of the parameterizations of 
                         important physical processes. This is used to assess the potential 
                         impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperature over 
                         South America and explore the range in projections obtained via 
                         the modifications to the model parameterizations.",
  conference-location = "Melbourne Australia",
      conference-year = "9 - 13 Feb",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "pdf_branco.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}