@InProceedings{MullerCavaFern:2009:AvMuFr,
               author = "{Kelen Martins Andrade} and Muller, Gabriela V. and Cavalcanti, 
                         Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque and Fernandez, Maria Elena",
          affiliation = "{} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o das mudan{\c{c}}as na frequ{\^e}ncia de 
                         sistemas frontais para o Sul da Am{\'e}rica do Sul no clima 
                         futuro",
                 year = "2009",
         organization = "Congreso Latino Americano e Iberico de Meteorologia, 13. e 
                         Congreso Argentino de Meteorologia, 10.",
             keywords = "frontal systems, climate change, South America.",
             abstract = "A freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da 
                         Am{\'e}rica do Sul {\'e} comparada com a rean{\'a}lise, 
                         NCEP/NCAR e resultados do cen{\'a}rio A2 no clima futuro dos 
                         modelos GFDL e Hadley. Para o clima presente o per{\'{\i}}odo 
                         analisado foi 1961-1990 e para o cen{\'a}rio futuro 2081-2100 de 
                         maio a setembro. As an{\'a}lises para identificar casos de 
                         sistemas frontais foram feitas nas em 3regi{\~o}es: {\'a}rea 1 
                         (52W-57W, 23S- 28S); {\'a}rea 2 (52W-57W, 28S-33S) e {\'a}rea 3 
                         (65W-60W, 33S-38S). Para a identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos sistemas 
                         frontais foi utilizado o seguinte crit{\'e}rio: aumento da 
                         press{\~a}o ao n{\'{\i}}vel m{\'e}dio do mar, queda de 
                         temperatura e mudan{\c{c}}a da componente meridional do vento em 
                         850 hPa, em dois dias consecutivos. Neste estudo foi selecionado 
                         tamb{\'e}m casos com queda de temperatura superior a 5 graus, 
                         sendo estes considerados mais intensos. Para o clima presente 
                         observou-se que os modelos analisados simularam bem as 
                         caracter{\'{\i}}sticas sin{\'o}ticas dos sistemas frontais. No 
                         entanto, quando se compara a freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia de 
                         ocorr{\^e}ncia das frentes entre a rean{\'a}lise e as 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es, observa-se que os modelos GFDL e Hadley 
                         superestimaram seu n{\'u}mero. O modelo Hadley superestima ainda 
                         mais em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao NCEP e GFDL tanto no clima presente 
                         quanto no futuro. No entanto, quando se seleciona os casos mais 
                         intensos o modelo GFDL {\'e} o que superestima mais o n{\'u}mero 
                         de sistemas frontais. ABSTRACT: The frequency of frontal systems 
                         reaching the south of South America is compared with reanalysis, 
                         NCEP/NCAR, and results of the A2 scenario for future climate 
                         models GFDL e Hadley. For the present climate the analyzed period 
                         was 1961-1990 and for future it was the scene 2081-2100 from May 
                         to September. The analyses to identify the cases of frontal 
                         systems had been made in 3 regions: area 1 (52W-57W, 23S-28S); 
                         area 2 (52W-57W, 28S- 33S) and area 3 (65W-60W, 33S-6S). For the 
                         identification of the frontal system was used the following 
                         criteria: increase of sea surface pressure, reduction of the 
                         temperature and change of the meridional wind at 850hPa, in two 
                         consecutive days. In this study was also selected cases with drop 
                         of temperature above 5 degrees and they were considered the most 
                         intense. For the present climate it was observed that the analyzed 
                         models had simulated well the synoptic characteristics of frontal 
                         systems. However, when compared the frequency of occurrence of the 
                         fronts between reanalysis data and models simulations, we observed 
                         that the GFDL and Hadley models overestimated their numbers. The 
                         Hadley model overestimates further more than the NCEP and GFDL 
                         ones, both present climate and future. However, when it is 
                         selected the most intense systems, the GFDL model is the one that 
                         most overestimates the number of frontal systems.",
  conference-location = "Buenos Aires, AR",
      conference-year = "5-9 oct.",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "congremet_kelen.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}