@InProceedings{BastarzFernHerd:2010:CaStMe,
               author = "Bastarz, Carlos Frederico and Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes and 
                         Herdies, Dirceu Luis",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Impact of Precipitation Assimilation in CPTEC'S RPSAS System: A 
                         Case Study of Mesoscale Convective Complexes",
            booktitle = "Abstracts...",
                 year = "2010",
         organization = "The Meeting of the Americas.",
            publisher = "AGU",
              address = "Washington DC",
             keywords = "data Assimilation, RPSAS, precipitation, nudging, numerical 
                         weather prediction.",
             abstract = "A data assimilation study was performed to access the impact of 
                         TRMM 3B42 precipitation in the CPTEC's RPSAS analysis system 
                         during January 2003. In this study the regional Eta model 
                         assimilates the TRMM's precipitation using a Nudging techinique 
                         during the first guess procedure. Departing from this first guess, 
                         the RPSAS system generates an analysis with 20 km horizontal 
                         resolution in an area that covers South America, from which were 
                         produced 24 hours forecasts using the Eta model. Global reanalysis 
                         data from NCEP/DOE and regional reanalysis data from CPTEC were 
                         used for comparison with the tests generated with and without the 
                         precipitation assimilation. Data collected during the SALLJEX 
                         campaign, TRMM and GPCP were used for comparison with the 
                         predictions of the Eta model. The evaluation of the results was 
                         made based on statistical indices and showed that the performance 
                         of forecasts up to 24 hours of the Eta model, especially in the 
                         early hours, is significantly enhanced by the inclusion of 
                         precipitation. The values of Bias and Mean-Square Error compared 
                         with the same model without the assimilation of precipitation were 
                         minor. Also was carried out a case study of Mesoscale Convective 
                         Complex occurred during the SALLJEX campaign. The inclusion of the 
                         precipitation assimilation in the Eta+RPSAS forecasts/analysis 
                         cycle allowed to simulate a case of MCC occurred on 23 January 
                         2003 with more details. Was also compared the wind profiles from 
                         the RPSAS analysis with the NCEP reanalysis for the occurrence of 
                         the MCC and were found a greater concordance between the profiles 
                         in relation to the profiles produced without the precipitation 
                         assimilation. Moisture flux was also calculated and showed similar 
                         values to the values produced by the NCEP reanalysis. The results 
                         of these simulations also show that besides the Eta model with 
                         precipitation assimilation, is able to play in more detail some 
                         key features of the MCC, as the spatial distribution of observed 
                         precipitation. Also the rainfall levels produced by the forecast 
                         model have been improved. This experiment also found that the use 
                         of the assimilation of TRMM precipitation in the generation of 
                         first guess improved the regional analysis produced by the CPTEC's 
                         RPSAS assimilation system and therefore increased the 24 hours 
                         forecasts produced by the Eta model. From the results, and making 
                         a few adjustments to the proposed assimilation scheme, we can 
                         study the possibility to implement operationally the assimilation 
                         of precipitation in the CPTEC's Eta+RPSAS system in order to 
                         contribute to increasing the realism of the regional forecasts of 
                         the center, especially the short-term as well as increase the 
                         system with the use of one more source of precipitation 
                         observations.",
  conference-location = "Foz do Iguassu",
      conference-year = "8-12 Aug. 2010",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "bastarz_impact.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "17 maio 2024"
}