@ElectronicSource{MachadoMendWeisBona:2010:AvUsEs,
abstract = "ABSTRACT: In this work we investigated if the dispersion of the
ensemble is a good indicator of a predicting forecast skill. The
CPTEC/INPE data used consist the 12h-lagged average forecasts
(LAF) compared with operational ensemble forecast of sample of 15
forecast for the variables 500 hPa geopotential height, air
temperature at 850 hPa pressure level and mean sea level pressure.
Analising the dispersion diagram and the contingency table with
the spread and the skill we observed which forecast day has high
skill and low dispersion. We noted that lagged average forecast
shows similar performance to operational EPS-CPTEC/INPE and that
there are a tendency to high skill for the ensemble mean when
spread forecast is low for 5 and 7 day forecast. These results
provide the basis for the operational implementation of the LAF
technique, which has low computational cost, and contribute to a
more efficient utilization of the CPTEC/INPE ensemble predictions.
.",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
author = "Machado, L{\'u}cia Helena Ribas and Mendon{\c{c}}a, Ant{\^o}nio
Marcos and Weissmann, Renata Borges Mendon{\c{c}}a and Bonatti,
Jos{\'e} Paulo",
keywords = "ensemble prediction system, spread, lagged average forecasts.",
language = "pt",
publisher = "Instituto and Nacional and de and Pesquisas and Espaciais",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP7W/37UCPS5",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP7W/37UCPS5",
targetfile = "v1.pdf",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do uso do espalhamento como preditor do
desempenho da previs{\~a}o de tempo por conjuntos do CPTEC/INPE",
typeofmedium = "On-line",
year = "2010",
urlaccessdate = "06 maio 2024"
}