%0 Journal Article
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/11.21.15.17
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/11.21.15.17.14
%@issn 1680-7340
%@issn 1680-7359
%T Using the firefly optimization method to weight an ensemble of rainfall forecasts from the brazilian developments on the regional atmospheric modeling system (brams)
%D 2013
%9 journal article
%A Mattos, Ariane Frassoni dos Santos de,
%A Freitas, Saulo Ribeiro de,
%A Mattos, Joćo Gerd Zell de,
%A Campos Velho, Haroldo Fraga de,
%A Gan, Manoel Alonso,
%A Luz, Eduardo Fįvero Pacheco Da,
%A Grell, G. A.,
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA
%@electronicmailaddress ariane.frassoni@cptec.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress joao.gerd@cptec.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress haroldo@lac.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress manoel.gan@cptec.inpe.br
%B Advances in Geosciences
%V 35
%P 123-136
%K algorithm, atmospheric modeling, ensemble forecasting, model validation, optimization, parameterization, precipitation assessment, precipitation intensity, rainfall, remote sensing, Brazil.
%X In this paper we consider an optimization problem applying the metaheuristic Firefly algorithm (FY) to weight an ensemble of rainfall forecasts from daily precipitation simulations with the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) over South Amer- ica during January 2006. The method is addressed as a pa- rameter estimation problem to weight the ensemble of pre- cipitation forecasts carried out using different options of the convective parameterization scheme. Ensemble simulations were performed using different choices of closures, repre- senting different formulations of dynamic control (the mod- ulation of convection by the environment) in a deep convec- tion scheme. The optimization problem is solved as an in- verse problem of parameter estimation. The application and validation of the methodology is carried out using daily pre- cipitation fields, defined over South America and obtained by merging remote sensing estimations with rain gauge ob- servations. The quadratic difference between the model and observed data was used as the objective function to deter- mine the best combination of the ensemble members to re- produce the observations. To reduce the model rainfall bi- ases, the set of weights determined by the algorithm is used to weight members of an ensemble of model simulations in order to compute a new precipitation field that represents the observed precipitation as closely as possible. The validation of the methodology is carried out using classical statistical scores. The algorithm has produced the best combination of the weights, resulting in a new precipitation field closest to the observations.
%@language en
%3 Santos_Using the Firefly.pdf