@InProceedings{CasagrandeNobr:2013:RePrSo,
               author = "Casagrande, Fernanda and Nobre, Paulo",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Resultados preliminares sobre a varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de gelo 
                         marinho {\'A}rtico baseado em resultados do Modelo Brasileiro de 
                         Sistema Terrestre/ Preliminary results on the Arctic sea ice 
                         variation based on Brazilian Earth System Model results",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2013",
         organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia, 5. (SIC).",
             keywords = "sea ice, Brazilian Model of the Earth System, Arctic.",
             abstract = "RESUMO: As regi{\~o}es polares estabelecem verdadeiros sumidouros 
                         de energia, essenciais para redistribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de calor 
                         executada pelos oceanos e pela atmosfera exercendo assim um 
                         importante papel no equil{\'{\i}}brio t{\'e}rmico do planeta. 
                         As complexas intera{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre oceano atmosfera e gelo 
                         marinho, ainda n{\~a}o s{\~a}o completamente entendidas e 
                         claramente quantificadas, especialmente no que tange aos processos 
                         de transfer{\^e}ncia de energia que influenciam a 
                         circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o termohalina, processos de feedback e 
                         teleconex{\~o}es. Nas {\'u}ltimas d{\'e}cadas, os 
                         hemisf{\'e}rios norte e sul t{\^e}m apresentado tend{\^e}ncias 
                         muito diferentes em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o a varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         cobertura de gelo marinho. O gelo marinho {\'a}rtico est{\'a} 
                         diminuindo em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado, enquanto o gelo 
                         marinho ant{\'a}rtico esta aumentando na maioria das 
                         regi{\~o}es. Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es a longo e curto prazo (10, 30 
                         e 100 anos) foram realizadas a partir do novo modelo de sistema 
                         terrestre o BESM (Modelo Brasileiro de Sistema Terrestre) e 
                         submetidas as projeto CMIP5. O BESM {\'e} constitu{\'{\i}}do 
                         pelo AGCM do CPTEC acoplado ao Modelo oce{\^a}nico MOM4p1 do 
                         GFDL. O modelo acoplado {\'e} formado por uma componente 
                         terrestre, oce{\^a}nica, e de gelo marinho (Sea Ice Simulator) e 
                         um acoplador FMS (Flexible Modular System). Os resultados das 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es indicam que o modelo {\'e} capaz de 
                         representar as varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es sazonais e interanuais na 
                         extens{\~a}o de gelo marinho no {\'a}rtico, bem como foi capaz 
                         de prever a diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o recorde da extens{\~a}o e 
                         espessura do gelo marinho nos anos de 2007 e 2012. As 
                         tend{\^e}ncias a longo prazo (1960-2060) indicam que o gelo 
                         marinho no oceano {\'a}rtico continuar{\'a} recuando e sua 
                         espessura tende a apresentar uma diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Estudos 
                         em andamento usando as mesmas simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do BESM 
                         submetidas ao CMIP5 indicam que o gelo marinho {\'A}rtico e 
                         Ant{\'a}rtico {\'e} sens{\'{\i}}vel a varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es na 
                         concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de CO2 atmosf{\'e}rico. ABSTRACT: The 
                         polar regions are big sinks of energy, essential for 
                         redistribution of heat carried by oceans and atmosphere, thereby 
                         exerting an important role in the thermal balance of the planet. 
                         The complex interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice 
                         are still not completely understood or clearly quantified, 
                         especially in regard to energy transfer processes. These processes 
                         influence the thermohaline circulation, feedback processes and 
                         teleconnections. In recent decades, the northern and southern 
                         hemispheres have shown very different trends in relation to 
                         variation in sea ice cover. The Arctic sea ice is decreasing at an 
                         accelerating pace, while the Antarctic sea ice is increasing in 
                         most regions. Long-term and short-term simulations (10, 30 and 100 
                         years) were taken from the newest Earth system BESM (Brazilian 
                         Model of the Earth System) and submitted to the CMIP5 project. The 
                         BESM-OA2.3 coupled climate model used in this research is 
                         constituted by the CPTEC/INPE AGCM coupled to GFDL MOM4p1 OGCM via 
                         GFDLs Flexible Modular System. The MOM4p1 has a Sea Ice Simulator. 
                         The simulation results indicate that the model is able to 
                         represent the seasonal and interannual variations in the extent of 
                         sea ice in the Arctic, and was also able to predict the record 
                         decline on the thickness and extent of sea ice in the years 2007 
                         and 2012. The validation of these results was done comparing the 
                         simulated sea ice with NOAA OI SST data set. The long-term trends 
                         (1960-2060) indicate that sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will 
                         continue retreating and its thickness tends to show a decrease. 
                         Studies in progress using the same simulations also show that the 
                         sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans is sensitivity to 
                         variations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.",
  conference-location = "Florian{\'o}polis, SC",
      conference-year = "15-19, set.",
        urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}