@InProceedings{CoutinhoMareVascCapi:2013:TePrSo,
author = "Coutinho, Mariane Mendes and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and
Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira and Capistrano, Vinicius
Buscioli",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Temperatura e precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul
em simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es hist{\'o}ricas e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
futuras do modelo do sistema terrestre HadGEM2/ Temperature and
precipitation over South America in historical simulations and
future projections from the Earth system model HadGEM2",
booktitle = "Anais...",
year = "2013",
organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia, 5. (SIC).",
abstract = "A fam{\'{\i}}lia HadGEM2 {\'e} um conjunto de
configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas do Modelo Unificado do
United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UK-Met Office) que foi
disponibilizado para o INPE devido a um acordo de
colabora{\c{c}}{\~a}o cient{\'{\i}}fica entre as duas
institui{\c{c}}{\~o}es. Esse modelo, em sua
configura{\c{c}}{\~a}o ES (Earth System), foi utilizado pelo
INPE para executar um membro adicional ao ensemble de
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es hist{\'o}ricas do UK-Met Office. Este
trabalho avalia, atrav{\'e}s da compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o com
diferentes conjuntos de dados observacionais e de rean{\'a}lises,
as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es hist{\'o}ricas do HadGEM2-ES para
temperatura e precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre a Am{\'e}rica do
Sul, considerando os quatro membros executados pelo UK-Met Office
e o quinto membro executado pelo INPE, sendo que este {\'u}ltimo
tamb{\'e}m est{\'a} dispon{\'{\i}}vel no banco de dados do
CMIP5 e no IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC). Os campos
obtidos para temperatura indicam que o modelo reproduz
adequadamente a varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o sazonal sobre a regi{\~a}o.
No entanto, h{\'a} superestima{\c{c}}{\~a}o da temperatura
pr{\'o}ximo aos Andes e na costa oeste do continente e
subestima{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre a Bol{\'{\i}}via, Paraguai e o
centro-sul do Brasil. Caracter{\'{\i}}sticas clim{\'a}ticas
como a ZCIT e a ZCAS s{\~a}o bem indicados pelos campos de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. S{\'e}ries temporais de 1979 a 2005 das
rodadas hist{\'o}ricas e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es sob os quatro RCPs
(Representative Concentration Pathways) propostos pelo CMIP5 (Fase
5 do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) para 2006 a 2098
s{\~a}o examinadas para cinco subdom{\'{\i}}nios sobre a
Am{\'e}rica do Sul, al{\'e}m de para o continente da
Am{\'e}rica do Sul como um todo. Em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao
per{\'{\i}}odo das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es hist{\'o}ricas,
h{\'a} contrastes regionais na concord{\^a}ncia com os dados
observacionais. No per{\'{\i}}odo relativo {\`a}s
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras, a diferen{\c{c}}a entre os quatro
RCPs {\'e} clara para a temperatura, enquanto que o mesmo
n{\~a}o ocorre no caso da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. The family
HadGEM2 is a set of climatic configurations of the Unified Model
of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UK-\‐Met
Office) which was made available to INPE due to a scientific
collaboration agreement between the two institutions. This model,
in its configuration ES (Earth System), was used by INPE to
perform an additional member to the ensemble of historical
simulations run by the UK-\‐Met Office. This paper
evaluates, by comparing with different sets of observational data
and reanalysis, the historical simulations of HadGEM2-\‐ES
for temperature and precipitation over South America, considering
the four-\‐run by the UK Met Office and the fifth member
executed by INPE , the latter of which is also available in the
database of the CMIP5 and IPCC Data Distribution Centre
(IPCC-\‐DDC). Fields obtained for temperature indicate
that the model properly reproduces the seasonal variation over the
region. However, there are warm biases near the Andes and over the
west coast. Also, the model underestimates temperatures over
Bolivia, Paraguay and centre-\‐south Brazil. Seasonal
precipitation simulated by the model well resembles climatological
features as the ITCZ and the SACZ. Time series of annual mean near
surface air temperature as simulated for 1979-\‐2005 by
HadGEM2-\‐ES historical runs performed by the UK Met
Office and INPE; and projections for 2006-\‐2098 under the
four RCPS (Representative Concentration Pathways) proposed by
CMIP5 (Coupled Model Phase 5 Intercomparison Project); are
examined for five subdomains on South America, as well as for the
South America continent. For the period of historical simulations,
there are regional contrasts in the agreement with the
observational data. For the future projections, a difference
between the four RCPs is clear for temperature, but not for
precipitation.",
conference-location = "Florian{\'o}polis",
conference-year = "15-19, set.",
urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}