@Article{LoweBCBCGJRCSR:2014:EaWaMo,
author = "Lowe, R. and Barcellos, C. and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and
Bailey, T. C. and Coelho, G. E. and Graham, R. and Jupp, T. and
Ramalho, W. M. and Carvalho, M. S. and Stephenson, D. B. and
Rod{\'o}, X.",
affiliation = "Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit, Institut Catal{\`a} de
Ci{\`e}ncies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain and
Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ,
Brazil and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and
Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
and Coordena{\c{c}}{\~a}o Geral do Programa Nacional de Controle
da Dengue, Minist{\'e}rio da Sa{\'u}de, Bras{\'{\i}}lia, DF,
Brazil and Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
and Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics
and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United
Kingdom and Faculdade de Ceil{\^a}ndia, Universidade de
Bras{\'{\i}}lia, Bras{\'{\i}}lia, DF, Brazil and
Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ,
Brazil and Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering,
Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter,
United Kingdom and Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit, Institut
Catal{\`a} de Ci{\`e}ncies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain;
Instituci{\'o} Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avan{\c{c}}ats,
Barcelona, Spain",
title = "Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: An early warning model
framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts",
journal = "Lancet Infectious Diseases",
year = "2014",
volume = "14",
number = "7",
pages = "619--626",
month = "July",
keywords = "alertness, article, Brazil, climate change, conceptual framework,
dengue, disease transmission, epidemic, epidemiological
monitoring, forecasting, high risk population, human, incidence,
information processing, population density, priority journal, real
time seasonal climate forecast, risk assessment, risk factor,
seasonal variation, spatiotemporal analysis, Bayes Theorem,
Brazil, Climate, Dengue, Forecasting, Humans, Risk, Seasons,
Soccer.",
abstract = "Background: With more than a million spectators expected to travel
among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup,
June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted
disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for
a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic
forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with
risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be
played. Methods: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts
from several international sources (European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France
and Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos
[CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in
Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of
Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal
hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue
warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past
performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue
incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger
alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of
dengue. Findings: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue
risk was likely to be low in the host cities Bras{\'{\i}}lia,
Cuiab{\'a}, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and S{\~a}o Paulo. The risk
was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and
Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern
cities of Recife (phigh = 19%), Fortaleza (phigh = 46%), and Natal
(phigh=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the
forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13).
Interpretation: This timely dengue early warning permits the
Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate,
city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World
Cup. Funding: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research
Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional
de Desenvolvimento Cient{\'{\i}}fico e Tecnol{\'o}gico and
Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de
Janeiro. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.",
doi = "10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9",
issn = "1473-3099",
label = "scopus 2014-11 LoweBCBCGJRCSR:2014:EaWaMo",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}