@Article{Dalla-NoraAguiLapoWolt:2014:WhHaLa,
               author = "Dalla-Nora, El{\'o}i Lennon and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de and 
                         Lapola, D. M. and Woltjer, G.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual 
                         Paulista (UNESP)} and {Wageningen University and Research Centre 
                         (WUR)}",
                title = "Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture 
                         the amount of deforestation over the last decade?",
              journal = "Land Use Policy",
                 year = "2014",
               volume = "39",
                pages = "403--411",
             keywords = "Brazilian amazon, land use models, land demand.",
             abstract = "Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major 
                         drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been 
                         proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover 
                         change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable 
                         development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by 
                         uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the 
                         literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use 
                         and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the 
                         last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and 
                         analyze the general structure of the land use models that have 
                         most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, 
                         seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain 
                         the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying 
                         special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this 
                         review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and 
                         the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency 
                         of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss 
                         potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of 
                         the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land 
                         cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a 
                         complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of 
                         land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. © 2014 Elsevier 
                         Ltd.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.02.004",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.02.004",
                 issn = "0264-8377 and 1873-5754",
                label = "scopus 2014-11 Dalla-NoraAguiLapoWolt:2014:WhHaLa",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Dalla Nora_why.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}