@InProceedings{FialhoBottChouGome:2014:AvNuMo,
author = "Fialho, Wendell Max Barbosa and Bottino, Marcus Jorge and Chou,
Sin Chan and Gomes, Jorge Luis",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o Num{\'e}rica do Modelo ETA de 5 km para a
Bacia Hidrogr{\'a}fica do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul",
year = "2014",
organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 18.",
keywords = "convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o, parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o.",
abstract = "Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a previs{\~a}o de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar sobre a
regi{\~a}o da bacia hidrogr{\'a}fica do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do
Sul utilizando o modelo regional Eta do CPTEC numa
resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 5 km. O modelo foi rodado no modo de
conjunto com 5 membros, combinando diferentes esquemas de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o (Betts-Miller, Kain-Fritsch e Kain-Fritsch
com fluxo de momentum), microf{\'{\i}}sica (Ferrier e Zhao) e
condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o inicial e de contorno (modelo Eta 40km/
modelo global com an{\'a}lise do NCEP e modelo GFS). Para
realiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o deste estudo foram utilizadas as
previs{\~o}es operacionais na configura{\c{c}}{\~a}o original
(Vers{\~a}o 1) e integra{\c{c}}{\~o}es experimentais dos
membros com convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o Betts-Miller com ajustes de
par{\^a}metros (Vers{\~a}o 2). O objetivo destes ajustes foi
reduzir excessos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar incidente {\`a} superf{\'{\i}}cie
verificados na Vers{\~a}o 1 do modelo. A diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o
da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o ocorreu atrav{\'e}s da
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do deficit de press{\~a}o no n{\'{\i}}vel
da base de congelamento e do topo da nuvem, enquanto que para a
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar houve uma
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do fluxo solar no topo da atmosfera baseado no
efeito dos aeross{\'o}is. As an{\'a}lises foram efetuadas com
previs{\~o}es do modelo Eta inicializado com as
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais das 00 UTC, com sa{\'{\i}}das
hor{\'a}rias num per{\'{\i}}odo de 24 horas entre a 25a e a 48a
hora de previs{\~a}o. Foram utilizados dados hor{\'a}rios de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar do INMET,
interpolados para a resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo, como
tamb{\'e}m produtos de sat{\'e}lite com estimativas de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do CMORPH/NOAA e de radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o
solar do CPTEC/INPE. Foi verificado que para a Vers{\~a}o 1 a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi melhor prevista pelo esquema
Kain-Fritsch. Os ajustes nos membros com convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o
Betts-Miller (Vers{\~a}o 2) mostraram uma significativa
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na superestimativa da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
encontrada na Vers{\~a}o 1. A radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar na
Vers{\~a}o 1 e 2 foi melhor estimada pelo esquema de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o Betts-Miller/The objective of the present
study is to evaluate the forecast of precipitation and radiation
over Rio Paraiba do Sul watershed by using CPTEC Eta regional
Model in 5-km resolution. The model was run in conjunction with 5
members combining different convection schemes (Betts-Miller,
Kain-Fritsch and Kain-Fritsch with momentum fluxes, microphysics
(Ferrier and Zhao), initial condition and boundary (Eta 40-km
Global Model with NCEP and GFS models analysis). For this study,
operational forecasts were used with default settings (Version 1)
and experimental integrations of Betts-Miller convection members
with parameter settings (Version 2). The purpose of these
adjustments was to reduce excess of precipitation and incident
solar radiation at surface observed in models Version 1. The
reduction in precipitation occurred by reducing the pressure
deficit at the base of of freezing-level and the cloud top,
whereas for reduction of solar radiation there was a reduction on
solar flux at top of atmosphere based on aerosols effects.
Analysis was performed with Eta Model which the initial-condition
of 00 UTC was initialized generating hourly outputs in a 24-hr
period between the 25th and 48th hour forecast. We used INMET
precipitation and solar radiation hourly data, interpolated for
model resolution, as well as satellite products such as
precipitation rainfall from CMORPH/NOAA and solar radiation from
CPTEC/INPE. Results indicated that for Version 1 the precipitation
was best predicted by using Kain-Fritsch scheme. The adjustments
on Betts-Miller convection members (Version 2) showed a
significantly reduction in the overestimation of precipitation,
previously found in Version 1. Solar radiation, both for Version 1
and 2, was best estimated by Betts-Miller convection scheme.",
conference-location = "Recife, PE",
conference-year = "3-6 nov., 2014.",
urlaccessdate = "18 abr. 2024"
}