@InProceedings{LyraLatiChouMare:2014:SiPrCl,
author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Latinovic, Dragan and Chou, Sin
Chan and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es e Proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es Clim{\'a}ticas
Regionais sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul/ Regional Climate
Simulations and Projections over South America",
year = "2014",
organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 18. (CBMET).",
keywords = "regional modelling, downscaling, climate change.",
abstract = "The objective of this study is to assess the climate simulations
and projections over South America using the regional climate Eta
Model driven by fully coupled Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES of the
Met Office Hadley Centre. The HadGEM2-ES was designed to run the
major scenarios for IPCC AR5 and comprises Earth system components
such as terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle and tropospheric
chemistry. Over the past years the regional climate Eta Model has
been used to produce climate change scenarios over South America
(Pesquero et al. 2009, Chou et al. 2012, Marengo et al. 2012). In
this study, Eta model was configured with 38 vertical layers,
20-km grid size and was run over 19602005 based on historical
emissions, and 20062100 based on RCP4.5 scenarios to simulate
possible future changes. We have evaluated the regional climate
simulation for some areas in Brazil, particularly for Amazon and
Northeast, Southeast and South regions of Brazil. Annual cycle of
precipitation and surface temperature for these areas was compared
with CRU (Climatic Research Unit) observational data. Simulated
and projected patterns of mean fields of precipitation,
temperature and upper and low-level circulation were analyzed for
austral summer and winter. The regional model reproduces
reasonably well the spatial patterns of the precipitation and
temperature. The downscaling with Eta model improved the
simulation of the seasonal cycle of precipitation and temperature
over Brazil and some regions when compared with HadGEM2-ES. The
projections suggested increases in DJF and JJA temperature of up
to 4 °C in continental South America, with more intense changes
occurring in the second half of the twenty-first century. The
precipitation projections showed the major changes in summer.",
conference-location = "Recife, PE",
conference-year = "3-6 nov., 2014",
targetfile = "Lyra_Regional.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}