@Article{LoweCaCoBaBaStRo:2015:InPrFo,
author = "Lowe, Rachel and Carvalho, Marilia S{\'a} and Coelho, Caio
Augusto dos Santos and Barcellos, Christovam and Bailey, Trevor C.
and Stephenson, David B. and Rod{\'o}, Xavier",
affiliation = "{Institut Catal{\`a} de Ci{\'e}ncies del Clima} and
{Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o
Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)} and {Instituci{\'o} Catalana de Recerca i
Estudis Avan{\c{c}}ats} and {} and {Institut Catal{\`a} de
Ci{\'e}ncies del Clima}",
title = "Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics",
journal = "The Lancet",
year = "2015",
volume = "15",
number = "1",
pages = "20",
keywords = "Forecasts.",
abstract = "We are grateful to Eduardo Massad and colleagues1 for discussing
the results of our study2 that addressed the potential for a
dengue epidemic during the World Cup in Brazil. We believe our
results are not comparable to point estimates obtained using
deterministic models; however, we welcome the opportunity to
discuss and clarify the interpretation of probabilistic forecasts
of dengue risk. The approaches (including aim, methodological
framework, data, and population) that we used2 differ in several
ways from those used by Massad and colleagues3 to estimate the
risk of acquiring dengue fever during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in
Brazil. Massad and colleagues used a mathematical modelling
approach, which was based on weekly notified cases in previous
weeks, to estimate the number of cases of dengue in foreign
visitors to Brazil. We used a spatiotemporal statistical model,
driven by climate information and dengue incidence 4 months
previously, to predict the probability of exceeding given
thresholds for the whole Brazilian population.",
doi = "10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71031-X",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71031-X",
issn = "0140-6736",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Interpretation of probabilistic.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 mar. 2024"
}