@Article{CunninghamBonaFerr:2015:AsImCP,
author = "Cunningham, Christopher and Bonatti, Jos{\'e} Paulo and Ferreira,
M{\'a}rcio",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Assessing improved CPTEC probabilistic forecasts on medium-range
timescale",
journal = "Meteorological Applications",
year = "2015",
volume = "22",
number = "3",
pages = "378--384",
month = "July",
keywords = "assessment, ensemble, forecast, medium range, probabilities.",
abstract = "The present study assesses the medium-range probabilistic forecast
issued using an improved version of the Centre for Weather
Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) Ensemble Prediction System
(EPS). This version includes improvements made to the method used
to select the fastest growing modes (the empirical orthogonal
functions (EOF)-based method), and the bias correction. Results
demonstrate that this improved CPTEC EPS surpasses the skills of
the current operational version. An assessment was conducted using
the framework of the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
(TIGGE), comparing three configurations of the CPTEC EPS to the
EPS from the National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and
the Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA). The score adopted for
metrics was the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS),
calculated for absolute temperature at the 850hPa level (T850),
and sea level pressure (SLP). The best improvements were found for
T850 over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with a general
increase of 9days in the useful forecast horizon. SLP augments are
more modest, with useful performance extension of 2days in the
Northern Hemisphere and 3days in the Southern Hemisphere. All the
EPSs over the Southern Hemisphere showed a general decrease in
performance when compared with their respective counterparts in
the Northern Hemisphere, both for T850 and SLP. Over the Tropics,
SLP is better predicted than T850 by most EPSs, but the NCEP EPS
presents the best performance over this region with similar scores
for the two variables.",
doi = "10.1002/met.1464",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1464",
issn = "1350-4827",
language = "en",
targetfile = "cunningham_assessing.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "23 abr. 2024"
}