@Article{FreireFreiCoel:2015:CaMoRe,
author = "Freire, Julliana Larise Mendon{\c{c}}a and Freitas, Saulo Ribeiro
de and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo regional BRAMS para a
previs{\~a}o de eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
year = "2015",
volume = "30",
number = "2",
pages = "158--170",
month = "jun.",
keywords = "Downscaling, ENOS, previs{\~a}o sazonal, Downscaling, ENSO,
seasonal climate predictions.",
abstract = "As previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais t{\^e}m
contribu{\'{\i}}do efetivamente para o planejamento de
atividades de diversos setores da sociedade, tais como, energia,
agricultura e sa{\'u}de. A necessidade de um maior detalhamento
das previs{\~o}es, atrav{\'e}s da diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
escala espacial da informa{\c{c}}{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica, tem
concentrado nos {\'u}ltimos anos esfor{\c{c}}os
cient{\'{\i}}ficos em v{\'a}rias regi{\~o}es do globo. A
aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o da t{\'e}cnica de redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
escala atrav{\'e}s da modelagem din{\^a}mica regional, conhecida
como downscaling din{\^a}mico, vem sendo utilizada com esse
objetivo. Desta forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo
calibrar e avaliar o modelo regional BRAMS, aninhado
unidirecionalmente ao modelo global MCGA/CPTEC, em prever os
eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos de 1983 (El Niņo) e 1989 (La
Niņa) sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul (AS), para o trimestre
mar{\c{c}}o-abril-maio (MAM). As previs{\~o}es com o BRAMS foram
produzidas na resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial de 30 km, tendo como
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de contorno a temperatura da
superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar persistida e a umidade do solo
climatol{\'o}gica. Ap{\'o}s o processo de
calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o, o modelo BRAMS conseguiu capturar o
padr{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o associada aos eventos
clim{\'a}ticos extremos, como a redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o (aumento) da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o principalmente no leste da regi{\~a}o
Norte e Nordeste do Brasil e o aumento (redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o) de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o Sul para o ano e 1983
(1989). ABSTRACT: The seasonal climate predictions have
effectively contributed to the planning on various sectors of
society, such as energy, agriculture and health activities. The
need for more detailed forecasts by increasing spatial resolution
climate information has concentrated research efforts recently in
various regions of the globe. Downscaling technique by regional
dynamic modeling, known as dynamic downscaling, has been used for
this purpose. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate and
calibrate the regional BRAMS model, unidirectionally nested with
AGCM/CPTEC global model, in predicting the extreme weather events
of 1983 (El Niņo) and 1989 (La Niņa) over South America (SA) for
March-April-May (MAM). The predictions were produced at spatial
resolution of 30 km, having the persisted sea surface temperature
and climatological soil moisture as boundary conditions. After the
calibration process, the BRAMS was able to capture the rainfall
pattern associated with extreme weather events, such as the
decrease (increase) in precipitation pattern mainly on the eastern
of North region and Northeast Brazil, and the increase (decrease)
of rainfall in the Southern region for the year 1983 (1989).",
doi = "10.1590/0102-778620140034",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620140034",
issn = "0102-7786",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "freire_calibracao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "02 maio 2024"
}