@Article{LyraChouOliv:2016:SeAmBi,
author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Chou, Sin Chan and Oliveira, Gilvan
Sampaio de",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change
projections",
journal = "Acta Amazonica",
year = "2016",
volume = "46",
number = "2",
pages = "175--187",
month = "June",
keywords = "climate change, regional climate model, dynamic vegetation
model.",
abstract = "Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the
impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation
cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible
changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under
different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models
may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the
biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the
Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and
boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate
model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These
simulations were validated using the Santarem tower data. In the
second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on
the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional
climate change projections. The projections show that some areas
of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous
forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland
in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates
a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in
RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of
about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase
of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees,
the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and
reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the
forest degradation in these simulations.",
doi = "10.1590/1809-4392201502225",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1809-4392201502225",
issn = "0044-5967",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Lyra_sensitivity.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "29 mar. 2024"
}