@Article{AguiarVADTSBCSANO:2016:AnFoTr,
author = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra and Vieira, Ima C{\'e}lia Guimar{\~a}es
and Assis, Talita Oliveira and Dalla Nora, El{\'o}i Lennon and
Toledo, Peter Mann de and Santos J{\'u}nior, Roberto Ara{\'u}jo
Oliveira and Batistella, Mateus and Coelho, Andrea Santos and
Savaget, Elza Kawakami and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e
Cruz de and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry
Balbaud",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Museu
Paraense Em{\'{\i}}lio Goeldi (MPEG)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual
de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Coordena{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
Aperfei{\c{c}}oamento de Pessoal de N{\'{\i}}vel Superio
(CAPES)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Land use change emission scenarios: Anticipating a forest
transition process in the Brazilian Amazon",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
year = "2016",
volume = "22",
number = "5",
pages = "1821--1840",
month = "May",
keywords = "Brazilian Amazon, CO2 emissions, Deforestation, Forest
degradation, Forest transition, Scenarios, Secondary vegetation,
Sustainability.",
abstract = "Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the
1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased
significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km2 yr-1 in the
last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this,
including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective
monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms.
Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly
expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale
transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak
institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and
quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon,
including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we
envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental
achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially
explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative
pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation
dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the
computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon
emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a
sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation
(~1000 km2 yr-1) and a change in the current dynamics of the
secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However,
our results also show that the continuation of the current
situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life
cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a
source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is
covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth
forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission
corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to
2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate
effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset
these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest
degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will
play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.13134",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13134",
issn = "1354-1013",
language = "en",
targetfile = "aguiar_land.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "26 abr. 2024"
}