@Article{DevisscherAndAraGalMal:2016:InWiRi,
author = "Devisscher, Tahia and Anderson, Liana O. and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz
Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de and Galvan, Luis and Malhi, Yadvinder",
affiliation = "{University of Oxford} and {University of Oxford} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidad Nacional
Aut{\'o}noma de M{\'e}xico} and {University of Oxford}",
title = "Increased wildfire risk driven by climate and development
interactions in the bolivian Chiquitania, southern Amazonia",
journal = "PLoS One",
year = "2016",
volume = "11",
number = "9",
pages = "e0161323",
month = "Sept.",
abstract = "Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical
landscapes due to reinforcing feed-backs between land cover change
and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian
Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia.
The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in
this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked
seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the
regional level driven by different development trajectories
interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future
risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with
presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and
climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire
risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and
density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone
increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all
categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between
extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further
increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44
+/- 0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the
estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed
particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle
ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching
and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for
subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which
greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors.
Results are particularly concerning if considering the current
development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental
protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established
in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However,
further research is needed to assess their effectiveness
accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and
simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management
decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes
to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0161323",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161323",
issn = "1932-6203",
language = "en",
targetfile = "devisscher.PDF",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}