@Article{GarciaCalhKaya:2016:ReMeDe,
author = "Garcia, S{\^a}mia R. and Calheiros, Alan James Peixoto and
Kayano, Mary Toshie",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Revised method to detect the onset and demise dates of the rainy
season in the South American Monsoon areas",
journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
year = "2016",
volume = "126",
number = "3/4",
pages = "481--491",
month = "Nov.",
abstract = "This paper proposes the detection of dates for the onset and
demise of the rainy season (ONR and DER, respectively) for some
areas within the South American monsoon system (SAMS) region using
procedures based on indices which could be easily calculated and
subjected to very simple criterion. Previously, the time series of
the averaged antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation ([AOLR]) in
each region of interest was used by some authors to detect ONR and
DER. This method is referred to as OLD. First, it was proposed in
this paper to smooth this time series with the five-pentad running
mean ([RM_AOLR]). This modified method is called NEW. Then, an
additional modification was adopted by smoothing the [AOLR] with
the three-pentad running mean but with the [AOLR] in the most
recent pentad being replaced by its climatological value
([RM_AOLRCLI]). This method is called NEW_CLI. For these methods,
the criterion was that the first pentad with negative (positive)
[AOLR] (or [RM_AOLR] or [RM_AOLRCLI]) is the ONR (DER) date in the
region of interest. All these methods were applied for the Central
Amazon (CAM) and Western-Central Brazil (WCB) regions during the
rainy seasons in the 20012013 period. The efficiency of these
methods was analyzed using the precipitation estimated from the
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite
Precipitation Analysis. The spatial average of the TRMM ([TRMM])
time series with threshold values, which depends on the area and
season, was used to determine the ONR and DER dates. In this case,
the single method based on the threshold value is called RAIN, and
the method which considers the persistence of dry or wet condition
is referred to as NEW_RAIN. Comparisons between the methods were
performed by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) when
ONR and DER dates obtained from a given method were considered as
the true dates. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods
were discussed here. It was previously noted that the [AOLR] time
series during the transition from dry (wet) to wet (dry) season
showed several signs of oscillation. This was a weakness when
detecting the ONR and DER dates; however, using the NEW and
NEW_CLI methods eliminated this problem. The NEW_CLI method has
more advantages than the other methods and will be useful for
monitoring the ONR and DER dates of the SAMS regions.",
doi = "10.1007/s00704-015-1599-3",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1599-3",
issn = "0177-798X",
label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR",
language = "en",
targetfile = "garcia_revised.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}