@Article{LyraImRoChGeGa:2017:PrClCh,
author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Imbach, Pablo and Rodriguez, Daniel
Andres and Chou, Sin Chan and Georgiou, Selena and Garofolo,
Lucas",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Tropical
Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Tropical Agricultural Research
and Higher Education Center} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical
rainforest",
journal = "Climatic Change",
year = "2017",
volume = "141",
number = "1",
pages = "93--105",
month = "Mar.",
keywords = "Biomass, Carbon, Carbon dioxide, Climate models, Ecosystems,
Forestry, Photosynthesis, Phytoplankton, Tropics, Vegetation.",
abstract = "Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon
cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary
productivity and contributing to CO2 sequestration. The objective
of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest
biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change
under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a
dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an
approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond
to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation
model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations.
These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs
in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of
regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass,
net primary production and changes in forest extent and
distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show
reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The
reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The
Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest
remains due to the CO2 fertilization effect. The future
distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of
tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah
and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to
significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase,
precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the
biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This
study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change
impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.",
doi = "10.1007/s10584-016-1790-2",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1790-2",
issn = "0165-0009",
language = "en",
targetfile = "lyra_projections.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "29 mar. 2024"
}