@Article{KriegerFoBuSaVeAlMeCa:2017:PrSuFi,
author = "Krieger Filho, Guenther Carlos and Bufacchi, Paulo and Santos,
Jos{\'e} Carlos dos and Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel and
Alvarado, Ernesto C. and Mell, William and Carvalho Junior,
Jo{\~a}o Andrade",
affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade de
S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)}
and {University of Washington} and {U.S. Forest Service Pacific
Northwest Research Station} and {Universidade Estadual Paulista
(UNESP)}",
title = "Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels
from outdoor experimental measurements",
journal = "European Journal of Forest Research",
year = "2017",
volume = "136",
number = "2",
pages = "217--232",
month = "Apr.",
keywords = "Brazilian rainforest, Flammability, Logistic regression model,
Surface fire.",
abstract = "This paper describes the development of a logistic model to
predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian
rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface
fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs.
There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites.
The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment,
the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet
and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass,
ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air
relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using
these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter
and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction
were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results
were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated
and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses
of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters
for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture
content. Concerning the probability of successful fire
propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a
true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to
gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to
provide input data for future computer simulations.",
doi = "10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2",
issn = "1612-4669",
language = "en",
targetfile = "krieger_probability.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}