@Article{CavalcantiNuMaGoSiCa:2017:PrPrCh,
               author = "Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque and Nunes, 
                         Luc{\'{\i}} H. and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio and Gomes, 
                         Jorge Lu{\'{\i}}s and Silveira, Virginia Piccinini and 
                         Castellano, Marina S.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Centro Nacional 
                         de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual 
                         de Campinas (UNICAMP)}",
                title = "Projections of precipitation changes in two vulnerable regions of 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo State, Brazil",
              journal = "American Journal of Climate Change",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "6",
               number = "2",
                pages = "268--293",
             keywords = "Climate Change, Precipitation Extremes, Vulnerable Regions, 
                         Precipitation Indices, Regional Model.",
             abstract = "Weather and climate extremes are part of the natural variability. 
                         However, the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes 
                         have increased in the globe following the global warming. Extreme 
                         precipitation impacts such as landslides and flooding with 
                         implications to vulnerability and adaptation are discussed for two 
                         regions of the state of S{\~a}o Paulo: the Metropolitan Region of 
                         Campinas and the Metropolitan Region of the Baixada Santista, 
                         located in southeastern South America. Simulations and projections 
                         obtained from four integrations of the Regional Eta model are 
                         analyzed to investigate the model behavior during the period of 
                         1961-1990 and the projections within the period of 2011-2100. 
                         Uncertainties are discussed based on the standard deviation among 
                         the model spread. The projections show precipitation increase in 
                         the Metropolitan Region of Campinas during DJF for the near and 
                         distant future, while there are more uncertainties in the other 
                         seasons. In the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, the 
                         precipitation increase is projected to all seasons, except JJA, 
                         when there is higher uncertainty. Daily rainfall indices suggest 
                         an increase of precipitation during the rainy days, but a 
                         reduction in the number of rainy days in both locations. The 
                         projections show a reduction of light rains and an increase of 
                         heavy rains at both regions. The model identifies the South 
                         Atlantic Convergence Zone and frontal systems as precipitation 
                         patterns associated with extremes in the two locations. The 
                         results can be useful for adaptation actions, since the regions 
                         are highly populated and have high vulnerabilities.",
                  doi = "10.4236/ajcc.2017.62014",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.62014",
                 issn = "2167-9495 and 2167-9509",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "cavalcanti_projections.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}