@Article{FonsecaVeiCorChoLyr:2017:AnRaEx,
author = "Fonseca, Paula and Veiga, Jos{\'e} Augusto and Correia, Francis
Wagner and Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz{\^o}nia (INPA)} and
{Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA)} and {Universidade do
Estado do Amazonas (UEA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "An analysis of rainfall extremes in the northern south america and
their behaviors for future climate based on a1b scenario",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Climatologia",
year = "2017",
volume = "13",
number = "20",
month = "jan./jul.",
keywords = "Extreme rainfal events, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate
Change, ETA model, Chuva extrema, Amaz{\^o}nia, Nordeste
Brasileiro, Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas, Modelo ETA.",
abstract = "The Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions
have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of
21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the
Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote
climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events
in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the
future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted
version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between
different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output
for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The
results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to
be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this
kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of
rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end
of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both
areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that
stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the populations need
for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces
the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections. RESUMO: A
Amaz{\^o}nia brasileira (BAMZ) e a regi{\~a}o nordeste (NEB)
t{\^e}m passado por eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos desde o
inicio do s{\'e}culo XXI. Na AMZ esses extremos clim{\'a}ticos
comprometem a floresta amaz{\^o}nica e seu papel essencial para o
clima local e n{\~a}o local. Esse estudo analisou se os eventos
extremos de chuva em ambas as regi{\~o}es ser{\~a}o mais
intensos e frequentes no futuro devido ao aumento dos gases do
efeito estufa. Uma vers{\~a}o adaptada do {\'{\i}}ndice RX5day
foi utilizada para distinguir entre os diferentes tipos de casos
de eventos extremos para os resultados das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es
num{\'e}ricas, provenientes das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com o
modelo ETA para a d{\'e}cada de 2089-2099 e comparada a
d{\'e}cada de 1980-1990. Os resultados mostram que embora se
espere uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o 1/3 no total de chuva (DJF) os
eventos do tipo raro ir{\~a}o contribuir com uma quantidade de
chuva maior e ocorrer{\~a}o com mais frequ{\^e}ncia nas duas
{\'a}reas no final do s{\'e}culo XXI. Eventos forte e muito
forte diminuir{\~a}o nas duas {\'a}reas (total de chuva e
frequ{\^e}ncia). Os resultados sugerem que os tomadores de
decis{\~a}o dever{\~a}o estar preparados para lidar com a
necessidade de assist{\^e}ncia da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o durante
as enchentes e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de chuvas e refor{\c{c}}a a
necessidade de adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o para proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
eventos clim{\'a}ticos piores.",
issn = "2237-8642",
language = "en",
targetfile = "fonseca_analysis.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "02 maio 2024"
}