@Article{WongchuigMellChou:2018:PrImCl,
author = "Wongchuig, Sly C. and Mello, Carlos R. and Chou, Sin Chan",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and
{Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit
and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,
Peru",
journal = "Journal of Mountain Science",
year = "2018",
volume = "15",
number = "5",
pages = "264--279",
keywords = "Precipitation, Evaporation, Precipitation Concentration Index
(PCI), Modified Fournier Index (MFI), Climate change, Tropical
Andes.",
abstract = "Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable
development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru.
This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential
evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation
concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes,
which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru.
We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global
climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the
steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river
valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model
simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution.
The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly
precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially
during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end
of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the
monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The
Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant
downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a
possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically
significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more
irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end
of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude
that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and
precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for
agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro
River Basin in Peru.",
doi = "10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8",
issn = "1672-6316",
label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
language = "en",
targetfile = "wonghuig_projections.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}