@Article{LyraTCSDSSMG:2018:ClChPr,
author = "Lyra, Andre de Arruda and Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Chou, Sin
Chan and Sueiro Medeiros, Gustavo and Dereczynski, Claudine and
Sondermann, Marcely and Silva, Adan and Marengo, Jos{\'e} and
Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
(UFRJ)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro
Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in
Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate
model at 5-km resolution",
journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
year = "2018",
volume = "132",
number = "1/2",
pages = "663--682",
month = "Apr.",
note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 8: Trabalho decente e
crescimento econ{\^o}mico}",
abstract = "The objective of this work is to assess changes in three
metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, S{\~a}o
Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta
Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5
km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active
economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events
that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The
analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The
5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in
the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the
assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations
were evaluated for the historical period (19611990). The
comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model
simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and
temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with
the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the
precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is
consistent with the observed structure and extreme values.
Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show
stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer
season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected
temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum
temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three
metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5
scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices
based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall
reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and
between 40 and 45 % in S{\~a}o Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of
these changes has negative implications to the population health
conditions, energy security, and economy.",
doi = "10.1007/s00704-017-2067-z",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2067-z",
issn = "0177-798X",
label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
language = "en",
targetfile = "lyra_climate.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}