@Article{ImbachCLRRLSSGG:2018:FuClCh,
               author = "Imbach, Pablo and Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda 
                         and Rodrigues, Daniela Carneiro and Rodriguez, Daniel and 
                         Latinovic, Dragan and Siqueira, Gracielle and Silva, Adan and 
                         Garofolo, Lucas Lopes and Georgiou, Selena",
          affiliation = "{International Centre for Tropical Agriculture} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate 
                         Studies and Research in Engineering} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center}",
                title = "Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial 
                         resolution",
              journal = "PLoS One",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "13",
               number = "4",
                pages = "e0193570",
                month = "Apr.",
             abstract = "The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling 
                         projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km 
                         resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the 
                         HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow 
                         characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical 
                         simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing 
                         climate change, the 30-year baseline period 19611990 is evaluated 
                         against different sources of observations of precipitation and 
                         temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature 
                         distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial 
                         correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against 
                         observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global 
                         model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the 
                         added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution 
                         simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in 
                         the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the 
                         Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 
                         8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is 
                         based on the 30-year period 20212050, under RCP4.5 scenario. 
                         Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA 
                         and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, 
                         but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The 
                         Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during 
                         the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase 
                         in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little 
                         change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend 
                         within the period 20212050, whereas extreme precipitation, 
                         measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern 
                         coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part 
                         of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, 
                         which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in 
                         most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative 
                         trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing 
                         water availability in the future scenario.",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0193570",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193570",
                 issn = "1932-6203",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "imbach_future.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 abr. 2024"
}