@Article{CaladoDeChSuMoSa:2018:AvDeSi,
author = "Calado, Renata Novaes and Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira and Chou,
Sin Chan and Sueiro, Gustavo and Moura, Jos{\'e} Davi de Oliveira
and Santos, Victor Rander da Silva",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Universidade
Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)}",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desempenho das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es por
conjunto do modelo Eta-5km para o caso de chuva intensa na Bacia
do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul em janeiro de 2000",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
year = "2018",
volume = "33",
number = "1",
pages = "83--96",
keywords = "simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es, precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelo Eta, alta
resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o, parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es convectiva e de
microf{\'{\i}}sica, simulations, rainfall, Eta model, high
resolution, convective and microphysics parameterizations.",
abstract = "O objetivo deste estudo {\'e} avaliar o desempenho das
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es por conjunto do modelo Eta-5km do Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais para um caso de chuva intensa
ocorrido na Bacia do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul em janeiro de
2000, durante um evento de Zona de Converg{\^e}ncia do
Atl{\^a}ntico Sul. O conjunto de simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es {\'e}
formado por 5 membros, denominados de acordo com suas
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es convectiva (Betts-Miller-Janjic - BMJ
ou Kain-Fritsch - KF) e de microf{\'{\i}}sica (Ferrier ou Zhao):
CNTRL (BMJ/Ferrier); KF (KF/Ferrier); KFMX (KF com fluxo de
momentum/Ferrier); KFMXP (KF com fluxo de momentum e for{\c{c}}a
do gradiente da perturba{\c{c}}{\~a}o da press{\~a}o/Ferrier) e
ZHAO (BMJ/Zhao). As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es s{\~a}o realizadas com
horizontes de 24 at{\'e} 120 h e condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
contorno inicial e lateral provenientes do Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis. Os resultados indicam que todos os membros s{\~a}o
capazes de posicionar a banda de chuva aproximadamente na mesma
localiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o observada. O modelo, apesar de subestimar
os valores das maiores pluviometrias di{\'a}rias, simula uma
frequ{\^e}ncia maior de eventos de chuva forte. Em geral, a
m{\'e}dia do conjunto apresenta melhor performance do que cada um
dos membros isoladamente e as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com 48 h de
anteced{\^e}ncia s{\~a}o superiores {\`a}s demais. ABSTRACT:
The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of
simulations generated by the ensemble of the Eta-5km model from
the National Institute for Space Research. The evaluation was
performed over the Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul River Basin during an
extreme rainfall event, occurred early in January 2000, in a South
Atlantic Convergence Zone event. The 5-member ensemble is formed
with different convective (Betts-Miller-Jancic - BMJ or
Kain-Fritsch - KF) and microphysics (Ferrier or Zhao)
parameterizations and are nominated respectively as: CNTRL
(Betts-MillerJanjic/Ferrier); KF (Kain-Fritsch/Ferrier); KFMX
(Kain-Fritsch with inclusion of momentum flux/Ferrier); KFMXP
(Kain-Fritsch with inclusion of momentum flux and force of the
perturbation of pressure gradient/Ferrier) and ZHAO
(Betts-Miller-Janjic/Zhao). The simulations are integrated up to
120 h and the initial and boundary conditions were taken from the
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. The results indicate that all
members were able to position the rain band in about the same
observed location. Although the model underestimates the highest
daily precipitation amount, it simulates higher frequency of heavy
rainfall events than it really occurs. In general, the ensemble
mean simulation presents higher performance than each individual
members and the 48-h simulations are better than the other
forecast lead times.",
doi = "10.1590/0102-7786331008",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786331008",
issn = "0102-7786",
language = "en",
targetfile = "calado_avaliacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "23 abr. 2024"
}