@PhDThesis{Anchayhua:2020:AnEsTe,
author = "Anchayhua, Rosario Julieta Altamirano",
title = "An{\'a}lise espacial e temporal de eventos extremos secos e
chuvosos e circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o atmosf{\'e}rica",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2020",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2018-05-25",
keywords = "Amaz{\^o}nia, agrupamento, SPI, eventos extremos, limiares de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Amazon, clustering, extreme events,
precipitation thresholds.",
abstract = "Este estudo tem por objetivo fazer uma an{\'a}lise espacial e
temporal dos eventos extremos secos e chuvosos na bacia
Amaz{\^o}nica. Para isto, a t{\'e}cnica de agrupamento
(m{\'e}todo de Ward) {\'e} utilizada para identificar
sub-regi{\~o}es pluviom{\'e}tricas homog{\^e}neas. Foram
calculados e avaliados tr{\^e}s {\'{\i}}ndices de seca:
{\'{\I}}ndice de Severidade da Seca de Palmer autocalibrado
(scPDSI), {\'{\I}}ndice de Precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
vapotranspira{\c{c}}{\~a}o Normalizado (SPEI) e {\'{\I}}ndice
de Precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o Normalizado (SPI) utilizados para
identificar e caracterizar eventos de secas e chuvas nestas
sub-regi{\~o}es. Dados da rean{\'a}lise ERA-Interim e do GPCC
foram usados para caracterizar (espa{\c{c}}o/temporal),
atrav{\'e}s da an{\'a}lise de agrupamentos e os {\'{\i}}ndices
de seca, os eventos extremos mais relevantes no per{\'{\i}}odo
1979-2013. Foram encontradas 5 sub-regi{\~o}es homog{\^e}neas
sobre a bacia: Norte, Noroeste, Central, Sudeste e Sul. Os
resultados mostraram que os ciclos anuais de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em todas sub-regi{\~o}es foram coerentes
com o desenvolvimento e a manuten{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o profunda entre setembro e maio na
regi{\~a}o amaz{\^o}nica. Na an{\'a}lise de desempenho entre os
{\'{\i}}ndices de seca e a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, o SPI foi
melhor em compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos outros {\'{\i}}ndices. As
sub-regi{\~o}es Norte, Noroeste e Centro (Sul) mostraram
tend{\^e}ncias positivas (negativas) na precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
e com os {\'{\i}}ndices. A an{\'a}lise espacial e temporal dos
SPI nas diferentes escalas e sub-regi{\~o}es identificaram os
principais eventos extremos de seca (1982-83; 1992; 1997-98; 2005
e 2010) e inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es (1989, 1999, 2009 e 2012).
Contudo, estes eventos mostraram diferentes
caracter{\'{\i}}sticas em cada sub-regi{\~a}o. A
Sub-regi{\~a}o Noroeste mostrou menor varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o nas
escalas do SPI, pelo que ocorreram poucos eventos chuvosos e secos
devido ao fato da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o ser uniformemente
distribu{\'{\i}}da ao longo do ano. As Sub-regi{\~o}es Sudeste
e Sul mostraram alta variabilidade nas escalas do SPI devido
{\`a} presen{\c{c}}a da marcante esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o seca e
chuvosa, por{\'e}m com maior ocorr{\^e}ncia de eventos secos e
chuvosos. Os resultados apontam que, os eventos secos e chuvosos
apresentaram diferen{\c{c}}as na frequ{\^e}ncia,
dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o, severidade e intensidade tanto temporalmente
como espacialmente. Verificam-se dois per{\'{\i}}odos marcantes:
a d{\'e}cada de 80s e 90s que caracterizou eventos mais
duradouros associados a um aumento ou d{\'e}ficit progressivo da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o durante longo tempo, e nos 2000 foram
curtos decorrente do aumento ou d{\'e}ficit dr{\'a}stico da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em curto tempo. Infere-se que a bacia
apresente ciclos secos e chuvosos, em vez de uma tend{\^e}ncia
como caracter{\'{\i}}stica das chuvas na Amaz{\^o}nia. Foi
revelado {\'a}reas de eventos secos (chuvosos) com maior
frequ{\^e}ncia, dura{\c{c}}{\~o}es, severidades e intensidades
ficaram no lado oriental (ocidental) da bacia. Evidenciou-se que a
ocorr{\^e}ncia dos eventos secos e chuvosos nas sub-regi{\~o}es
Norte, Noroeste, Centro e Sudeste se associam aos eventos ENOS. Os
resultados n{\~a}o mostraram correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre as
anomalias das escalas do SPI e a TSM na sub-regi{\~a}o Sul
merecendo mais aten{\c{c}}{\~a}o em estudos posteriores.
Conclui-se que ambos os limiares de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e SPI
s{\~a}o complement{\'a}rios para caracterizar os eventos
extremos: secos e chuvosos e sugere-se seu uso para monitorar
esses eventos como apontados pelas refer{\^e}ncias citadas neste
estudo. ABSTRACT: This study aims to make a spatial and temporal
analysis of extreme dry and rainy events in the Amazon basin. For
this, the grouping technique (Ward method) is used to identify
homogeneous pluviometric sub-regions. Three drought indices were
calculated and evaluated: Palmer Drought Severity Index
self-calibrated (scPDSI), Precipitation Index and Normalized
Evapotranspiration (SPEI) and Normalized Precipitation Index (SPI)
were used to identify and characterize drought and rainfall events
in these subregions. Data from the ERA-Interim and GPCC reanalysis
were used to characterize (space/time), through cluster analysis
and drought indexes, the most relevant extreme events in the
period 1979-2013. The results showed that the annual precipitation
cycles in all subregions were consistent with the development and
maintenance of deep convection between September and May in the
Amazon region. In the performance analysis between indexes and
precipitation, SPI was better in comparison to the other indices.
The North, Northwest and Center (South) subregions showed positive
(negative) trends in precipitation and with indices. The spatial
and temporal analysis of SPI in the different scales and
subregions identified the main extreme events of drought (1982-83,
1992, 1997-98, 2005 and 2010) and floods (1989, 1999, 2009 and
2012). However, these events showed different characteristics in
each subregion. The Northwest Subregion showed lower variation in
SPI scales, so there were few rainy and dry events due to the fact
that precipitation was evenly distributed throughout the year. The
Southeast and South Sub-regions showed high variability in the SPI
scales due to the presence of the marked dry and rainy season, but
with more occurrence of dry and rainy events. The results indicate
that the dry and rainy events presented differences in frequency,
duration, severity and intensity both temporally and spatially.
There are two major periods: the 1980s and 1990s that
characterized more long-lasting events associated with a
progressive increase or deficit of precipitation over a long
period of time, and in the 2000s were short due to the increase or
drastic deficit of precipitation in a short time. It is inferred
that the basin presents dry and rainy cycles, instead of a
tendency as characteristic of rainfall in the Amazon. Areas of dry
(rainy) events were revealed more frequently, durations,
severities and intensities were found on the eastern (western)
side of the basin. It was evidenced that the occurrence of dry and
rainy events in the North, Northwest, Central and Southeast
subregions are associated with ENSO events. The results showed no
correlation between the SPI and SST anomalies in the southern
subregion, deserving more attention in later studies. It is
concluded that both precipitation thresholds and SPI are
complementary to characterize the extreme events: dry and rainy
and its use is suggested to monitor these events as indicated by
the references cited in this study.",
committee = "Orsini, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio Marengo (presidente) and Fernandez,
Julio Pablo Reyes (orientador) and Manzi, Antonio Ocimar and
Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira and Vasques, Ana Carolina",
englishtitle = "Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme dry and wet events in
Amazon and associated atmospheric circulation",
language = "pt",
pages = "229",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3R54RKH",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3R54RKH",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "29 mar. 2024"
}