@Article{FaleiroNeméLoyo:2018:ClChLi,
author = "Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille and Nem{\'e}sio, Andr{\'e} and
Loyola, Rafael",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade
Federal de Uberl{\^a}ndia} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in
climatic suitable sites",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
year = "2018",
volume = "24",
number = "6",
pages = "2272--2283",
month = "June",
keywords = "Atlantic rainforest, biodiversity loss, Euglossini, pollinators,
species distribution models.",
abstract = "Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species'
occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population
abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental
suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and
predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the
congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence
or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate
change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit
with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict
the effect of climate change on species and assembly level
distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether
predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to
abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of
orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian
Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male
orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds
and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait
traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar
standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation.
We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and
project them into six climate models and two Representative
Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species
occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance
when the output of the models were continuous; results were very
different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We
found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but
a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore,
geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very
short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species
richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and
southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the
ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to
support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species
triage in Atlantic Forest.",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.14112",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14112",
issn = "1354-1013",
language = "en",
targetfile = "faleiro_climate.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}