@Article{AbeLoDiCoSaNo:2018:MoEfHi,
author = "Abe, Camila Andrade and Lobo, Felipe de Lucia and Dibike, Yonas
Berhan and Costa, Maycira Pereira de Farias and Santos, Vanessa
dos and Novo, Evlyn M{\'a}rcia Le{\~a}o de Moraes",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Environment and
Climate Change Canada} and {University of Victoria} and
{Universit{\'e} de Caen Normandie} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Modelling the effects of historical and future land cover changes
on the hydrology of an Amazonian basin",
journal = "Water (Switzerland)",
year = "2018",
volume = "10",
number = "7",
pages = "e932",
month = "July",
keywords = "water balance, land cover change, Amazon, hydrological modelling,
water resources.",
abstract = "Land cover changes (LCC) affect the water balance (WB), changing
surface runoff (SurfQ), evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater (GW)
regimes, and streamflow (Q). The Tapaj{\'o}s Basin (southeastern
Amazon) has experienced LCC over the last 40 years, with
increasing LCC rates projected for the near future. Several
studies have addressed the effects of climate changes on the
regions hydrology, but few have explored the effects of LCC on its
hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment
Tool (SWAT) was applied to model the LCC effects on the hydrology
of the Upper Crepori River Basin (medium Tapaj{\'o}s Basin),
using historical and projected LCC based on conservation policies
(GOV_2050) and on the Business as Usual trend (BAU_2050). LCC that
occurred from 1973 to 2012, increased Q by 2.5%, without
noticeably altering the average annual WB. The future GOV_2050 and
BAU_2050 scenarios increased SurfQ by 238.87% and 300.90%, and Q
by 2.53% and 2.97%, respectively, and reduced GW by 4.00% and
5.21%, and ET by 2.07% and 2.43%, respectively. Results suggest
that the increase in deforestation will intensify floods and
low-flow events, and that the conservation policies considered in
the GOV_2050 scenario may still compromise the regions hydrology
at a comparable level to that of the BAU_2050.",
doi = "10.3390/w10070932",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10070932",
issn = "2073-4441",
language = "en",
targetfile = "abe_modelling.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "26 abr. 2024"
}