@Article{LapolaPQSRKBOPMVN:2018:LiHiIm,
author = "Lapola, David M. and Pinho, Patricia and Quesada, Carlos A. and
Strassburg, Bernardo B. N. and Rammig, Anja and Kruijt, Bart and
Brown, Foster and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and Premebida,
Adriano and Marengo, Jos{\'e} A. and Vergara, Walter and Nobre,
Carlos Afonso",
affiliation = "{Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Stockholm
University} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz{\^o}nia
(INPA)} and {International Institute for Sustainability} and
{Technical University of Munich} and {Wageningen University} and
{Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio
Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e
Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {World Resources
Institute} and {National Institute of Science and Technology for
Climate Change}",
title = "Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets
science and policy action",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United
Sates of America",
year = "2018",
volume = "115",
number = "46",
pages = "11671--11679",
month = "Nov.",
keywords = "ecosystem services, agriculture, hydroelectricity generation,
migration, adaptation.",
abstract = "Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt
large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change
[Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational
evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we
assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken
now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No
action/later action would result in major social impacts that may
influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal
chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower
river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and
health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year
period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) \$957
billion (×109) and \$3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian
Amazon Product of USD \$150 billion per year), arising primarily
from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of
acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than
economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives-e.g.,
curbing deforestation-are attainable (USD \$64 billion), their
efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is
uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures
is also attainable (USD \$122 billion) and could bring benefits
even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to
fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should
focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence
regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic
assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility
and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options.",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1721770115",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721770115",
issn = "0027-8424",
language = "en",
targetfile = "lapola_limiting.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "05 maio 2024"
}