@InCollection{OliveiraBCAVRNA:2019:AsPoIm,
               author = "Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de and Borma, Laura de Simone and 
                         Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Von Randow, 
                         Celso and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Nobre, Carlos Afonso 
                         and Alexandre, Felipe Ferreira",
                title = "Assessing the possible impacts of a 4 °C or higher warming in 
                         Amazonia",
            booktitle = "Climate change risks in Brazil",
            publisher = "Springer",
                 year = "2019",
               editor = "Nobre, C. A. and Marengo, J. A. and Soares, W. R.",
                pages = "201--218",
             keywords = "Amazonian forest, warming.",
             abstract = "The Amazonian forests ability to provide environmental services is 
                         threatened by anthropogenic forcing at various scales, such as 
                         deforestation, fire, global and regional climate change, and 
                         extreme events. In addition to the impacts resulting from each one 
                         of these drivers, the synergistic effects potentially increase the 
                         risks. In the light of the above, this chapter aims to evaluate 
                         the future prospects for the Amazon in a scenario of 4 °C or 
                         higher warming resulting from anthropogenic climate change and the 
                         related hydrological cycle changes. Future climate scenarios 
                         project progressively higher warming that may exceed 4 °C in 
                         Amazonia in the second half of the century, particularly during 
                         the dry season in the region. Associated with these scenarios, it 
                         is projected a reduction of precipitation year-round, being a 
                         substantial reduction predominantly in the dry and transition 
                         seasons and smaller reductions of the order of 5% for the SH 
                         summer. Evaluating the consequences of such substantial climatic 
                         change, several negative effects in Amazonia can be anticipated, 
                         including short-term hydrological changes similar to the events 
                         associated to the extreme 2005 and 2010 droughts, and longer 
                         time-scale modifications of broad scale characteristics such as 
                         different biome distribution. Based on hydrological models, it is 
                         generally expected a reduction in river discharges associated to 
                         precipitation decreases and temperature increases brought about by 
                         projected climate change, but with the magnitude of the changes 
                         differing between models. The future climate change scenarios 
                         imply important changes in biomes distribution over Amazonia, with 
                         potential expansion of savannah and caatinga over large areas 
                         currently occupied by tropical forests. It is necessary a 
                         reduction to nearly zero in tropical deforestation and reducing 
                         land-cover emissions and mitigating climate change to avoid a 
                         dangerous interference with the ability of natural ecosystems to 
                         adapt to these possible changes.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                  doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_8",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_8",
                 isbn = "978-331992881-4 and 978-331992880-7",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "sampaio_assessing.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}