@Article{MaksicShOlVeCaFe:2019:SiHoCl,
author = "Maksic, Jelena and Shimizu, Marilia Harumi and Oliveira, Gilvan
Sampaio de and Ven{\^a}ncio, Igor Martins and Cardoso, Manoel
Ferreira and Ferreira, Felipe Alexandre",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Simulation of the Holocene climate over South America and impacts
on the vegetation",
journal = "The Holocene",
year = "2019",
volume = "29",
number = "2",
pages = "287--299",
keywords = "caatinga, climate change, ITCZ, monsoon, paleovegetation,
potential vegetation, rainforest, savannah.",
abstract = "We provide a comprehensive analysis of the Holocene climate and
vegetation changes over South America through numerical
simulations. Holocene climate for several periods (8 ka, 6 ka, 4
ka, 2 ka, and present) were simulated by an atmospheric general
circulation model, forced with orbital parameters, CO2
concentrations, and sea surface temperature (SST), while the
analysis of the biome distributions was made with a potential
vegetation model (PVM). Compared with the present climate, our
four simulated periods of the Holocene were characterized by
reduced South Atlantic Convergence Zone intensity and weaker South
American Monsoon System (SAMS). The model simulated conditions
drier than present over most of South America and gradual
strengthening of SAMS toward the present. The Northeast Brazil was
wetter because of southward migration of the intertropical
convergence zone (ITCZ). Moreover, SST conditions were the main
forcing for the climate changes during the mid Holocene inducing
larger austral summer southward ITCZ migration. PVM
paleovegetation projections are shown to be consistent with
paleodata proxies which suggest fluctuations between biomes,
despite the fact that ages of dry/wet indicators are not
synchronous over large areas of the Amazonian ecosystem. Holocene
PVM simulations show distinct retreat in Amazonian forest biome in
all four simulated periods. In 6 ka, present caatinga vegetation
in Northeastern Brazil was replaced with savanna or dense
shrubland. The simulations also suggest the existence of
rainforest in western Amazonia and the expansion of savanna and
seasonal forest in the eastern Amazon, with shifts in plant
community compositions and fragmentation located mostly in ecotone
regions. Moreover, our PVM results show that during the Holocene,
the Amazonian tropical forest was smaller in area than today,
although western Amazonia persisted as a tropical forest
throughout the Holocene.",
doi = "10.1177/0959683618810406",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683618810406",
issn = "0959-6836",
language = "en",
targetfile = "maksic_simulation.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}