@Article{MarengoSTBHBAS:2018:CuFuVa,
               author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Souza J{\'u}nior, Carlos A. and 
                         Thonicke, Kirsten and Burton, Chantelle and Halladay, Kate and 
                         Betts, Richard A. and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Soares, Wagner R.",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and Imazon and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 
                         Research} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley 
                         Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Esp{\'{\i}}rito Santo (UFES)}",
                title = "Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current 
                         and Future Variability and Trends",
              journal = "Frontiers in Earth Science",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "6",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre}",
             keywords = "Amazonia, El Nino, climate variability, deforestation, tipping 
                         point, moisture transport, rainfall, climate modelling.",
             abstract = "This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate 
                         variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these 
                         interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of 
                         up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability, 
                         and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6-0.7 degrees C 
                         over the last 40 years, with 2016 as the warmest year since at 
                         least 1950 (0.9 degrees C + 0.3 degrees C). We focus on local and 
                         remote drivers of climate variability and change. We review the 
                         impacts of these drivers on the length of dry season, the role of 
                         the forest in climate and carbon cycles, the resilience of the 
                         forest, the risk of fires and biomass burning, and the potential 
                         {"}die back{"} of the Amazon forests if surpassing a {"}tipping 
                         point{"}. The role of the Amazon in moisture recycling and 
                         transport is also investigated, and a review of model development 
                         for climate change projections in the region is included. In sum, 
                         future sustainability of the Amazonian forests and its many 
                         services requires management strategies that consider the 
                         likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued 
                         warming trend. Science has assembled enough knowledge to underline 
                         the global and regional importance of an intact Amazon region that 
                         can support policymaking and to keep this sensitive ecosystem 
                         functioning. This major challenge requires substantial resources 
                         and strategic cross-national planning, and a unique blend of 
                         expertise and capacities established in Amazon countries and from 
                         international collaboration. This also highlights the role of 
                         deforestation control in support of policy for mitigation options 
                         as established in the Paris Agreement of 2015.",
                  doi = "10.3389/feart.2018.00228",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228",
                 issn = "2296-6463",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "feart-06-00228.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "18 abr. 2024"
}