@Article{MarengoSTBHBAS:2018:CuFuVa,
author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Souza J{\'u}nior, Carlos A. and
Thonicke, Kirsten and Burton, Chantelle and Halladay, Kate and
Betts, Richard A. and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Soares, Wagner R.",
affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and Imazon and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley
Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do
Esp{\'{\i}}rito Santo (UFES)}",
title = "Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current
and Future Variability and Trends",
journal = "Frontiers in Earth Science",
year = "2018",
volume = "6",
note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre}",
keywords = "Amazonia, El Nino, climate variability, deforestation, tipping
point, moisture transport, rainfall, climate modelling.",
abstract = "This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate
variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these
interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of
up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability,
and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6-0.7 degrees C
over the last 40 years, with 2016 as the warmest year since at
least 1950 (0.9 degrees C + 0.3 degrees C). We focus on local and
remote drivers of climate variability and change. We review the
impacts of these drivers on the length of dry season, the role of
the forest in climate and carbon cycles, the resilience of the
forest, the risk of fires and biomass burning, and the potential
{"}die back{"} of the Amazon forests if surpassing a {"}tipping
point{"}. The role of the Amazon in moisture recycling and
transport is also investigated, and a review of model development
for climate change projections in the region is included. In sum,
future sustainability of the Amazonian forests and its many
services requires management strategies that consider the
likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued
warming trend. Science has assembled enough knowledge to underline
the global and regional importance of an intact Amazon region that
can support policymaking and to keep this sensitive ecosystem
functioning. This major challenge requires substantial resources
and strategic cross-national planning, and a unique blend of
expertise and capacities established in Amazon countries and from
international collaboration. This also highlights the role of
deforestation control in support of policy for mitigation options
as established in the Paris Agreement of 2015.",
doi = "10.3389/feart.2018.00228",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228",
issn = "2296-6463",
language = "en",
targetfile = "feart-06-00228.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}