@InCollection{ChanMSLTSHNGHAA:2019:PrClCh,
author = "Chan, Chou Sin and Marengo, Jos{\'e} A. and Silva, Adan Juliano
da and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Tavares, Priscila da Silva
and Souza, Celia Regina de Gouveia and Harari, Joseph and Nunes,
Luc{\'{\i}} H. and Greco, Roberto and Hosokawa, Eduardo K. and
Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de and Alves, Lincoln
Muniz",
title = "Projections of climate change in the coastal area of Santos",
booktitle = "Climate change in Santos Brazil: projections, impacts and
adaptation options",
publisher = "Springer",
year = "2019",
editor = "Nunes, L. H. and Greco, R. and Marengo, J. A.",
pages = "59--73",
keywords = "Santos · Climate projections · Dynamical downscaling ·
Extremeclimate indices · Storms.",
abstract = "The objective of this work is to assess the projections of climate
change in the city of Santos. The assessment is based on the
downscaling of two global climate model simulations using the Eta
Regional Climate Model at 20-km and 5-km resolutions, under RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 scenarios for the period between 1961 and 2100. The
higher horizontal resolution simulations reproduce in more detail
the surface characteristics, such as the topography, vegetation
cover, and coastline, and capture the extreme climate events.
Evaluation of the model simulations of the present climate show
reasonable agreement with observed climatology. Frequency
distributions of precipitation and temperature values show that
the 5-km run approaches the observed precipitation better than the
20-km resolution run. The assessment of climate change projections
indicates that warming in the region reaches about 2 °C until the
end of the twenty-first century, and that precipitation reduces in
the entire region. Trends of climatic extreme indices show
increase of hot days, warm nights, and in the length of
consecutive dry days with the increase of the atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations. Projections of the minimum surface
pressure off the coast of Southeast Brazil show weakening tendency
under RCP8.5 scenario.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro
Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
de Geologia da Secretaria de Meio Ambiente do Estado de S{\~a}o
Paulo} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and
{Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Universidade
Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Secretaria de Desenvolvimento
Urbano do Munic{\'{\i}}pio de Santos} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-96535-2_4",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96535-2_4",
isbn = "978-331996535-2 and 978-331996534-5",
language = "en",
targetfile = "chou_projections.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "20 set. 2024"
}