@Article{AndradeCoelCava:2019:GlPrHi,
author = "Andrade, Felipe Marques de and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and
Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Global precipitation hindcast quality assessment of the
Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
year = "2019",
volume = "52",
number = "9/10",
pages = "5451--5475",
month = "May",
keywords = "Subseasonal prediction, S2S prediction project models, Hindcast
quality, Precipitation, Teleconnections.",
abstract = "This study assessed subseasonal global precipitation hindcast
quality from all Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project
models. Deterministic forecast quality of weekly accumulated
precipitation was verified using different metrics and hindcast
data considering lead times up to 4weeks. The correlation scores
were found to be higher during the first week and dropped as lead
time increased, confining meaningful signals in the tropics mostly
due to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian
Oscillation-related effects. The contribution of these two
phenomena to hindcast quality was assessed by removing their
regressed precipitation patterns from predicted fields. The
model's rank showed ECMWF, UKMO, and KMA as the top scoring models
even when using a single control member instead of the mean of all
ensemble members. The lowest correlation was shared by CMA, ISAC,
and HMCR for most weeks. Models with larger ensemble sizes
presented noticeable reduction in correlation when subsampled to
fewer perturbed members, showing the value of ensemble prediction.
Systematic errors were measured through bias and variance ratio
revealing in general large positive (negative) biases and variance
overestimation (underestimation) over the tropical oceans
(continents and/or extratropics). The atmospheric circulation
hindcast quality was also examined suggesting the importance of
using a relatively finer spatial resolution and a coupled model
for resolving the tropical circulation dynamics, particularly for
simulating tropical precipitation variability. The extratropical
circulation hindcast quality was found to be low after the second
week likely due to the inherent unpredictability of the
extratropical variability and errors associated with model
deficiencies in representing teleconnections.",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-018-4457-z",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4457-z",
issn = "0930-7575",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Andrade2019_Article_GlobalPrecipitationHindcastQua.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "20 abr. 2024"
}