@MastersThesis{Coelho:2019:SiNuPr,
author = "Coelho, Sildiscley Assis",
title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es num{\'e}ricas para previs{\~a}o de
eventos de tempo severo sobre o Aeroporto Internacional de
S{\~a}o Paulo",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2019",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2019-09-16",
keywords = "alta resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o, ensemble, WRF, high resolution.",
abstract = "Eventos de tempo severo podem impactar as atividades
aeroportu{\'a}rias e o gerenciamento do fluxo de tr{\'a}fego
a{\'e}reo, al{\'e}m de levar a outros impactos
socioecon{\^o}micos. Neste trabalho, para 3 casos de tempo severo
ocorridos no Aeroporto Internacional de S{\~a}o Paulo Guarulhos
entre 2016 e 2017, avaliou-se o desempenho de
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es em alta resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o com o Weather
Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) utilizando multiphysics
ensemble. Nos 3 casos, a condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o sin{\'o}tica foi
comum e consistiu na atua{\c{c}}{\~a}o de um sistema frontal
sobre a regi{\~a}o. O n{\'u}mero de membros do ensemble foi 9.
As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es foram executadas em dois
dom{\'{\i}}nios aninhados com espa{\c{c}}amento horizontal de 9
e 3 km aproximadamente centrados no aeroporto. As
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais e de contorno foram provenientes de
previs{\~o}es do Global Forecast System (GFS). O prazo {\'u}til
de previs{\~a}o considerado foi de 24 h. A an{\'a}lise dos
resultados enfocou duas vari{\'a}veis: precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
vento a 10 m. Para a compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es e observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es, foram
utilizadas, para a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, estat{\'{\i}}sticas
computadas com as informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es contidas em uma caixa de
100 km x 100 km centrada no aeroporto; para o vento, valores no
ponto de grade do aeroporto. As s{\'e}ries temporais observadas
foram comparadas com as m{\'e}tricas do ensemble (mediana,
dispers{\~a}o e outlier) representadas em boxplot. Os resultados
mostraram que o instante de ocorr{\^e}ncia e a
dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o forte s{\~a}o
previstos em ambos os dom{\'{\i}}nios pelos outliers. Para a
intensidade de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o m{\'a}xima, o valor e o
instante de ocorr{\^e}ncia podem ser previstos pelos outliers no
dom{\'{\i}}nio de 9 km e pela mediana no dom{\'{\i}}nio de 3
km. O instante de ocorr{\^e}ncia e a dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
rajadas de vento podem ser previstos pela dispers{\~a}o dos
membros em ambos os dom{\'{\i}}nios. Todos esses resultados, por
terem sido v{\'a}lidos para os 3 casos, podem ser considerados
robustos. A metodologia utilizada no trabalho, por ser simples,
poder{\'a} ser adaptada e implementada em centros operacionais,
como o Centro Integrado de Meteorologia Aeron{\'a}utica (CIMAER),
para assistir a previs{\~a}o para o Aeroporto Internacional de
S{\~a}o Paulo. ABSTRACT: Severe weather events can affect airport
activities and air traffic management, as well as other
socioeconomic activities. In this work, for 3 severe weather cases
that occurred in the International Airport of S{\~a}o Paulo
Guarulhos between 2016 and 2017, the performance of high
resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting
Model (WRF) using multiphysics ensemble was evaluated. In the 3
cases, there was a common synoptic condition: the presence of a
frontal system over the region. The number of members in the
ensemble was 9. The simulations were performed in two nested
domains with 9 km and 3 km horizontal spacing approximately
centered at the airport. Initial and boundary conditions were
provided by Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts. The forecast
range was 24 h. The analysis of results focused on two variables:
precipitation and wind at 10 m. To compare simulations with
observations, for precipitation, statistics computed from
information contained in a 100 km x 100 km box centered at the
airport were used; for wind, values at the grid point closest to
the airport were used. The time series for observations were
compared with that for simulations by using ensemble metrics
(median, dispersion and outlier) represented in boxplot. The
results showed that the time of occurrence and the duration of
heavy precipitation can be predicted in both domains by outliers.
For the maximum precipitation intensity, the value and the time of
occurrence can be predicted by outliers in the 9 km domain and the
median in the 3 km domain. The time of occurrence and duration of
wind gusts can be predicted by the dispersion in both domains. All
these results, being valid for all 3 cases, can be regarded as
robust. The methodology used in the work, due to its simplicity,
can be adapted and implemented in operational centers, such as the
Centro Integrado de Meteorologia Aeron{\'a}utica (CIMAER), to
assist the weather forecasting activities for the International
Airport of S{\~a}o Paulo.",
committee = "Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes (presidente) and Oyama, Marcos
Daisuke (orientador) and Silva, Adaiana Francisca Gomes da",
englishtitle = "Number simulations for forecasting several time events about
S{\~a}o Paulo International Airport",
language = "pt",
pages = "149",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3U9J6J8",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3U9J6J8",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "29 mar. 2024"
}