@Article{TomazSanBorSilBez:2019:PrImSe,
author = "Tomaz, Raoni and Sandos, Andr{\'e} and Borges, Helder and Silva
J{\'u}nior, Celso Henrique Leite and Bezerra, Denilson da Silva",
affiliation = "{Universidade CEUMA} and {Instituto Federal do Maranh{\~a}o
(IFMA)} and {Instituto Federal do Maranh{\~a}o (IFMA)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal do Maranh{\~a}o (UFMA)}",
title = "Predicting the impacts of sea-level rise on the Amazon macrodital
mangrove coast",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Climatologia",
year = "2019",
volume = "25",
pages = "15--34",
month = "jul./dez.",
keywords = "Mangrove forests, Amazonian coast, Climate change, Sea-Level Rise,
Computational modeling, Geographic Information System, Florestas
de manguezal, Costa Amaz{\^o}nica, Mudan{\c{c}}as
Clim{\'a}ticas, Eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do N{\'{\i}}vel do Mar,
Modelagem Computacional, Sistema de Informa{\c{c}}{\~a}o
Geogr{\'a}fica.",
abstract = "Brazil has the largest continuous area of mangrove forests in the
world, the Amazon Macrotidal Mangrove Coast (AMMC). The objective
of the present study is to simulate the response of eastern
Amazonian mangroves to sea-level rise, and to produce a
vulnerability assessment for this section of the Brazilian coast.
We used a spatially explicit model, based on cellular automata and
Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify resistance
patterns, migration and/or inundation of these mangroves for
different events of sea-level rise (SLR). The simulation considers
90 elevation events from 0.00318 m to 0.2862 m according to an
arithmetic progression of reason 0.00318 m for the time interval
from 2010 to 2100. The adopted SLR rate was 3.18 mm / year
(0.00318 m / year), this rate corresponds to an average of sea
elevation values observed for the Brazilian coast during the
mid-twentieth century and early twenty-first century. At the end
of the simulation (year 2100), the original mangrove area (4,180
km2 ) was reduced to 2,916 km2 , representing a loss of 30.24%.
Our simulation also showed significant landward migration of the
mangroves, and the modeled loss of the original mangrove area was
compensated by a net addition of 301 km2 of new mangroves inland,
a net increase of 7.2% in the total mangrove area (4,481 km2 in
2100). These results suggest that mangrove forests in the AMMC can
present a pattern of area increase and migration to the continent
from the projected SLR. These findings can help the identification
of migration corridors for the Amazonian mangroves and the
development of adaptation strategies in face of impending SLR.
RESUMO: O Brasil possui a maior {\'a}rea cont{\'{\i}}nua de
manguezais do mundo, a Costa de Manguezais de Macromar{\'e}s da
Amaz{\^o}nia (CMMA). O objetivo do presente estudo {\'e} simular
a resposta dos manguezais do leste da Amaz{\^o}nia ao aumento do
n{\'{\i}}vel do mar e produzir uma avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
vulnerabilidade para este trecho da costa brasileira. Foi
utilizado um modelo espacialmente expl{\'{\i}}cito, baseado em
aut{\^o}matos celulares e Sistema de Informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es
Geogr{\'a}ficas (SIG) para identificar padr{\~o}es de
resist{\^e}ncia, migra{\c{c}}{\~a}o e / ou
inunda{\c{c}}{\~a}o desses manguezais para diferentes eventos de
eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do n{\'{\i}}vel do mar (ENM). A
simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o considera 90 eventos de eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o
de 0,00318 m a 0,2862 m de acordo com uma progress{\~a}o
aritm{\'e}tica de raz{\~a}o 0,00318 m para o intervalo de tempo
de 2010 a 2100. A taxa ENM adotada foi de 3,18 mm / ano (0,00318 m
/ ano), esta taxa de eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o corresponde a uma
m{\'e}dia dos valores de eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do mar observados
para a costa brasileira em meados do s{\'e}culo XX e
in{\'{\i}}cio do s{\'e}culo XXI. Ao final da
simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o (ano 2100), a {\'a}rea original de
manguezal (4.180 km2) foi reduzida para 2.916 km2, representando
uma perda de 30,24%. A execu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o tamb{\'e}m mostrou migra{\c{c}}{\~a}o
significativa do manguezal e a perda modelada da {\'a}rea de
manguezal original foi compensada por uma adi{\c{c}}{\~a}o
l{\'{\i}}quida de 301 km2 de manguezais para o interior do
continente, um aumento l{\'{\i}}quido de 7,2% na {\'a}rea total
de manguezais (4.481 km2 em 2100). Estes resultados sugerem que as
florestas de manguezais na CMMA podem apresentar um padr{\~a}o de
aumento de {\'a}rea e migra{\c{c}}{\~a}o para o continente a
partir da ENM projetada. Essas descobertas podem ajudar na
identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o de corredores de migra{\c{c}}{\~a}o
para os manguezais da Amaz{\^o}nia e no desenvolvimento de
estrat{\'e}gias de adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o frente {\`a} ENM
iminente.",
issn = "2237-8642",
language = "en",
targetfile = "tomaz_predicting.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}