@InProceedings{HiryeWagMcPFilAlv:2019:CaSăPa,
               author = "Hirye, Mayumi Cursino de Moura and Wagner, Fabien Hubert and 
                         McPhearson, Timon and Filardo, Angelo Salvador and Alves, 
                         Di{\'o}genes Salas",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Eugene Lang College} 
                         and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional 
                         de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Urban Landslides in Social-Ecological-Technological Systems: the 
                         case of S{\~a}o Paulo Metropolitan Region",
                 year = "2019",
         organization = "AGU Fall Meeting",
             abstract = "Urban landslides are increasing globally caused manly by 
                         human-induced changes in hillsides. From 1993 to 2013, more than 
                         12,000 geological disasters events, mostly shallow landslides, 
                         were recorded in the biggest urban agglomeration in Brazil, the 
                         Metropolitan Region of S{\~a}o Paulo (MRSP). The majority of 
                         these events caused low-intensity damages to housing and 
                         infrastructure. Social-Ecological-Technological Systems approach 
                         enables the analysis of urban landslides as the outcome of dynamic 
                         socioeconomic and infrastructural conditions alongside climatic 
                         and geophysical conditions. Intrinsic characteristics and natural 
                         processes of ecological-biophysical domain are altered by 
                         urbanization on hillsides. Alterations are controlled by actions 
                         of dwellers, land developers and public administration, understood 
                         as components of the social-behavioral domain. These actions are 
                         materialized in the technological-infrastructural domain, 
                         comprising the built environment. A total of 2,038 events recorded 
                         in 2009/2010 were used to model landslides occurrence in MRSP, 
                         associating them to variables characterizing terrain, 
                         infrastructural conditions, families and their building practices, 
                         as well as the antecedent rainfall calculated for landslides' and 
                         non-landslides' points. A multi-step model was used to select the 
                         best set of variables and assess their importance. Results showed 
                         that antecedent rainfall plays the most important role, followed 
                         by terrain slope. Subnormal conditions, revealing poor building 
                         practices and the lack of municipal inspection, alongside with the 
                         number of households, which stands for built density and therefore 
                         a greater alteration in hillsides, yielded slightly lower 
                         contribution. Other variables related to families' income and 
                         educational level, infrastructure systems and vegetation provided 
                         only a marginal contribution. The value of AUC of the model was of 
                         0.9087, denoting the high level of discrimination achieved. These 
                         results reinforce the role of local ordinances aimed to restrict 
                         occupation in steeper slopes and public policies to promote 
                         adequate housing and to improve building practices. On the other 
                         hand, future climate projections to MRSP point to the increment of 
                         intense rainfall days, calling attention to the increasing risk 
                         posed by landslides.",
  conference-location = "San Francisco, CA",
      conference-year = "09-13 dec.",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "hirye_urban.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}