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@Article{OrtegaMaDiRaArLoBi:2019:MeLiCr,
               author = "Ortega, Jean C. G. and Machado, Nath{\'a}lia and Diniz Filho, 
                         Jos{\'e} Alexandre Felizola and Rangel, Thiago F. and 
                         Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B. and Loyola, Rafael and Bini, Luiz 
                         Maur{\'{\i}}cio",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} 
                         and {Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate 
                         change",
              journal = "Ecology and Evolution",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "9",
               number = "19",
                pages = "11136--11144",
                month = "Oct.",
             keywords = "ecological niche modeling, global warming, meta-analysis, range 
                         size, species distribution, uncertainty.",
             abstract = "Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in 
                         predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we 
                         meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the 
                         potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the 
                         Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three 
                         Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered 
                         the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean 
                         difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline 
                         and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were 
                         projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential 
                         ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the 
                         total variance in range shifts occurred {"}within species{"} 
                         (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and 
                         climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., 
                         it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using 
                         meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that 
                         potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological 
                         traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce 
                         species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also 
                         explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using 
                         meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for 
                         powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be 
                         a promising line of investigation.",
                  doi = "10.1002/ece3.5617",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5617",
                 issn = "2045-7758",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Ortega_meta.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 mar. 2024"
}


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