@Article{SalesRibPirChaLoy:2019:DiCoWi,
               author = "Sales, Lilian Patr{\'{\i}}cia and Ribeiro, Bruno B. and Pires, 
                         Mathias M. and Chapman, Colin A. and Loyola, Rafael",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {University of Montreal} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Recalculating route: dispersal constraints will drive the 
                         redistribution of Amazon primates in the Anthropocene",
              journal = "Ecography",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "42",
               number = "10",
                pages = "1789--1801",
                month = "Oct.",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre}",
             keywords = "biodiversity distribution, climate change, climate-driven 
                         migration, deforestation, protected corridors.",
             abstract = "Climate change will redistribute the global biodiversity in the 
                         Anthropocene. As climates change, species might move from one 
                         place to another, due to local extinctions and colonization of new 
                         environments. However, the existence of permeable migratory routes 
                         precedes faunal migrations in fragmented landscapes. Here, we 
                         investigate how dispersal will affect the outcome of climate 
                         change on the distribution of Amazon's primate species. We modeled 
                         the distribution of 80 Amazon primate species, using ecological 
                         niche models, and projected their potential distribution on 
                         scenarios of climate change. Then, we imposed landscape 
                         restrictions to primate dispersal, derived from a natural 
                         biogeographical barrier to primates (the main tributaries of the 
                         Amazon river) and an anthropogenic constraint to the migration of 
                         many canopy-dependent animals (deforested areas). We also 
                         highlighted potential conflict zones, i.e. regions of high 
                         migration potential but predicted to be deforested. Species 
                         response to climate change varied across dispersal limitation 
                         scenarios. If species could occupy all newly suitable climate, 
                         almost 70% of species could expand ranges. Including dispersal 
                         barriers (natural and anthropogenic), however, led to range 
                         expansion in only less than 20% of the studied species. When 
                         species were not allowed to migrate, all of them lost an average 
                         of 90% of the suitable area, suggesting that climate may become 
                         unsuitable within their present distributions. All Amazon primate 
                         species may need to move as climate changes to avoid deleterious 
                         effects of exposure to non-analog climates. The effect of climate 
                         change on the distribution of Amazon primates will ultimately 
                         depend on whether landscape permeability will allow climate-driven 
                         faunal migrations. The network of protected areas in the Amazon 
                         could work as 'stepping stones' but most are outside important 
                         migratory routes. Therefore, protecting important dispersal 
                         corridors is foremost to allow effective migrations of the Amazon 
                         fauna in face of climate change and deforestation.",
                  doi = "10.1111/ecog.04499",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04499",
                 issn = "0906-7590",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "sales_recalculating.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}