@PhDThesis{Sales:2020:PaOcTr,
author = "Sales, Domingo Cassain",
title = "O papel dos oceanos tropicais no deficit de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre a Regi{\~a}o Nordeste do Brasil
durante o outono austral de 2012 a 2017",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2020",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2019-12-19",
keywords = "Nordeste brasileiro, variabilidade interanual de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelo de circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o geral
da atmosfera, previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal, Northeast
Brazil, precipitation interannual variability, atmospheric general
circulation model, seasonal climate forecasting.",
abstract = "Este trabalho analisa o d{\'e}ficit de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
na Subregi{\~a}o Norte do Nordeste do Brasil (NNEB) durante o
outono austral de 2012 a 2017, por meio de uma an{\'a}lise
observacional e de experimentos diagn{\'o}sticos e
progn{\'o}sticos com o Modelo de Circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o Geral da
Atmosfera do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos
Clim{\'a}ticos/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (MCGA do
CPTEC/INPE). O foco do trabalho consiste em responder as seguintes
quest{\~o}es: qual o papel dos bacias oce{\^a}nicas tropicais no
d{\'e}ficit de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre o NNEB, durante o
outono austral de 2012 a 2017? Foi poss{\'{\i}}vel prever as
anomalias de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o no NEB com um m{\^e}s de
anteced{\^e}ncia, no per{\'{\i}}odo de estudo? Nos experimentos
diagn{\'o}sticos (que prescrevem a TSM observada como
condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de limite inferior para o MCGA do
CPTEC/INPE), os quais foram desenhados para responder a primeira
pergunta, a resposta isolada e combinada das for{\c{c}}antes
tropicais das bacias oce{\^a}nicas sobre a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e outras vari{\'a}veis atmosf{\'e}ricas
(como press{\~a}o do n{\'{\i}}vel do mar,
circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de baixos n{\'{\i}}veis, umidade
espec{\'{\i}}fica e anomalias de {\^o}mega) foram analisadas.
Foram encontrados que, para os anos de 2012 e 2013, o
Atl{\^a}ntico apresentou-se como a principal for{\c{c}}ante
oce{\^a}nica a modular anomalias negativas de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre o NEB (para este {\'u}ltimo ano, o
oceano {\'{\I}}ndico tamb{\'e}m atuou no sentido de inibir a
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre o NEB). Para os anos de 2014 at{\'e}
2017, os oceanos Pac{\'{\i}}fico e {\'{\I}}ndico atuaram no
sentido de modular anomalias negativas de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
sobre o NEB, enquanto que o Atl{\^a}ntico modulou anomalias
positivas. No experimento progn{\'o}stico (que persiste a
anomalia de TSM observada em janeiro do ano em estudo at{\'e} o
per{\'{\i}}odo de fevereiro a maio do mesmo ano), a resposta das
anomalias de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre o NNEB foi
investigada, tentando antecipar os pap{\'e}is isolados do oceano
Pac{\'{\i}}fico, do oceano Atl{\^a}ntico (caracterizado por
dipolos definidos), bem como a influ{\^e}ncia combinada das duas
bacias oce{\^a}nicas. Al{\'e}m disso, na tentativa de
alcan{\c{c}}ar condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es oce{\^a}nicas mais
pr{\'o}ximas da realidade (ao inv{\'e}s de persistir a anomalia
de TSM), uma abordagem de decaimento exponencial sobre a anomalia
de TSM observada em janeiro foi aplicada para o ano
espec{\'{\i}}fico de 2015. Em todos os 6 anos, o modelo
conseguiu prognosticar d{\'e}ficit de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
sobre o NEB. Al{\'e}m desses resultados, foram encontrados
tr{\^e}s grupos de anos semelhantes: 2012 e 2013 (nos quais as
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es oce{\^a}nicas do Atl{\^a}ntico tropical
apresentaram-se como for{\c{c}}ante dominante, caso fosse
desenvolvido um padr{\~a}o do tipo dipolo), 2014 e 2017 (onde as
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es oce{\^a}nicas do Atl{\^a}ntico
apresentaram-se como as for{\c{c}}antes predominantes na
subregi{\~a}o do NNEB, enquanto que as influ{\^e}ncias da
persist{\^e}ncia das condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es do Pac{\'{\i}}fico
prevaleceram na subregi{\~a}o do SNEB) e 2015 e 2016 (nos quais
as condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es do Pac{\'{\i}}fico prevaleceram devido
ao desenvolvimento de um El Niņo). Os resultados dos experimentos
desenvolvidos neste trabalho contribu{\'{\i}}ram para o
entendimento da rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre as anomalias de TSM e
anomalias de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre o NNEB, identificando
a bacia oce{\^a}nica respons{\'a}vel pelo d{\'e}ficit de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o observado, al{\'e}m de ilustrar o
potencial do uso de informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es de anomalias de TSM
recentemente observadas para for{\c{c}}ar o modelo e antecipar
d{\'e}ficit de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na perspectiva da
previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal. ABSTRACT: This work analyzes
the precipitation deficit over the northern part of northeast
Brazil (NNEB) during 2012-2017 austral autumn, through an
observational analysis and diagnostic and prognostic experiments
with the Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos
Clim{\'a}ticos/Instituto National de Pesquisas Espaciais
Atmospheric General Circulation Model (CPTEC/INPE AGCM). The focus
of the work is to answer the following questions: what is the role
of tropical ocean basins in the precipitation deficit over NNEB
subregion, during the austral autumn from to 2012 to 2017 period?
Was it possible to forecast the precipitation anomalies over NEB
one month in advance, during the study period? In the diagnostic
experiments (which prescribe the observed SST as a lower boundary
condition for the CPTEC/INPE AGCM), which were designed to answer
the first question, the isolated and combined response of the
tropical forcing of the ocean basins over the precipitation and
other atmospheric variables (like, sea level pressure, low level
circulation, specific humidity and omega anomalies) were analyze.
It was found that, for the years 2012 and 2013, the Atlantic
presented as the main ocean forcing to modulate negative
precipitation anomalies over NEB (for this last year, the Indian
Ocean also acted to inhibit the convection over the NEB). For the
years 2014 to 2017, the Pacific and Indian Oceans acted to
modulated negative precipitation anomalies over the NEB, while the
Atlantic modulated positive anomalies. In the prognostic
experiments (which persists the SST anomaly observed in January of
the year in study through the February to May of the same year)
the precipitation anomalies response over NNEB were investigate
trying to anticipate the isolated roles of the Pacific Ocean,
Atlantic Ocean (characterized by pre-defined dipoles), as well as
the comined influence of the two ocean basins. Additionally, in an
attempt to represent ocean conditions closer to reality (instead
to the persisting the SST anomaly), an exponential decay approach
to the January observed SST anomaly was applied for the specific
year of 2015. In all 6 years, the model was able to predict
precipitation deficit over the NEB. Three groups of similar years
were found: 2012 and 2013 (in which the oceanic conditions of the
tropical Atlantic were the dominant forcing, if a dipole pattern
were developed), 2014 and 2017 (where the oceanic conditions of
the Atlantic presented as the predominant forcing over the NNEB
subregion, while the influences of the persistence of Pacific
conditions prevailed in the SNEB subregion), and 2015 and 2016 (in
which Pacific conditions prevailed due to the development of an El
Niņo event). The results of the experiments developed in this work
contributed to the understanding of the relationship between SST
anomalies and precipitation anomalies over the NNEB subregion,
identifying the ocean basin responsible for the observed rainfall
deficit, in addition to illustrating the potential of using SST
anomalies information recently observed to force the model and
anticipate precipitation deficit from the perspective of seasonal
climate forecasting. The model results contributed for the
understanding of the relationship between SST and precipitation
anomalies over NNEB by identifying the ocean basin driving the
observed precipitation deficit, as well as illustrated the
potential for the use of recently observed SST anomaly information
to force the model and antecipate the manifested precipitation
deficit from the perspective of seasonal climate forecasting.",
committee = "Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi (presidente) and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos
Santos (orientador) and Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque
and Camargo, Ricardo de and Sakamoto, Meiry Sayuri",
englishtitle = "The role of tropical oceans in precipitation deficit over the
northeast Brazil region during the austral autumn from 2012 to
2017",
language = "pt",
pages = "312",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3UPM47L",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3UPM47L",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "26 abr. 2024"
}