@Article{ZilliSSVMLHKLR:2020:ImClCh,
               author = "Zilli, M{\'a}rcia and Scarabello, Marluce da Cruz and Soterroni, 
                         Aline Cristina and Valin, Hugo and Mosnier, Aline and 
                         Lecl{\`e}re, David and Havl{\'{\i}}k, Petr and Kraxner, Florian 
                         and Lopes, Maur{\'{\i}}cio Ant{\^o}nio and Ramos, Fernando 
                         Manuel",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {International Institute for 
                         Applied System Analysis (IIASA)} and {International Institute for 
                         Applied System Analysis (IIASA)} and {International Institute for 
                         Applied System Analysis (IIASA)} and {} and {International 
                         Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)} and {International 
                         Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture",
              journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "740",
                pages = "e139384",
                month = "Oct.",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 2: Fome zero e Agricultura 
                         sustent{\'a}vel}",
             keywords = "GLOBIOM-Brazil, Land-use competition, Change in production, 
                         Soybean, Corn, Sugar cane.",
             abstract = "Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction 
                         of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top 
                         exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances 
                         in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate 
                         change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these 
                         impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial 
                         equilibrium model of the competition for land use between 
                         agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various 
                         refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, 
                         projections of future agricultural areas and production are based 
                         on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models 
                         (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through 
                         changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate 
                         Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating 
                         in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios 
                         permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to 
                         the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease 
                         in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in 
                         the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural 
                         production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the 
                         Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384",
                 issn = "0048-9697",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "zilli_impact.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}