@PhDThesis{Assis:2021:SpTePa,
author = "Assis, Talita Oliveira",
title = "Forest degradation in the Amazon: spatial temporal patterns,
related factors, and CO2 emissions",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2021",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2020-09-04",
keywords = "fire, logging, droughts, deforestation, modeling, fogo,
explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o madeireira, secas, desmatamento,
modelagem.",
abstract = "In the last years, forest degradation in the Brazilian Legal
Amazon has shown significant values, frequently higher than
deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2018, the degraded area
totaled 191,632 kmē, representing 2.4 times the 89,501 kmē
deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include
changes in the forest structure, carbon stocks, and biodiversity
loss, affecting the CO2 balance and future climate changes. This
thesis investigates the factors underlying the Spatio-temporal
distribution of forest degradation in this region in recent years
and how they impact CO2 balance in the region. Droughts and
deforestation are some of the main factors linked to forest
degradation. Then, we analyzed how the relationship between these
factors and forest degradation evolved during this period by
analyzing three indicators: water deficit anomaly indicator,
historical clear cut deforestation indicator, and protected areas
indicator. We also analyzed temporal trajectories of forest
degradation from August 2006 to July 2016 in the Brazilian Amazon.
We assessed their impact on the regional carbon balance, combining
the degradation process with deforestation-related processes
(clearcut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics), using
the spatially-explicit INPEEM carbon emission model. Finally, we
explored socio-economic and environmental factors that influence
forest degradation spatial distribution and project scenarios of
degradation and CO2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon. Our
results pointed out that 80% of the degradation events occur in
areas classified as drought condition areas during the driest
years. In contrast, forest degradation in these areas does not
exceed 50% when considering the entire period. On the other hand,
the relationship between degradation and historical deforestation
were, on average, 67% during the whole period. Additionally, our
results also show that, on average, 25% of the degradation
occurred in Indigenous Territories and 9% in Conservation Units.
The trajectory analysis showed that 13% of the degraded area ended
up being cleared and converted in the period, and 61% of the total
degraded area experienced only one event of degradation throughout
the whole period. Net emissions added up to 5.4 Gt CO2,
considering the emissions from forest degradation and
deforestation, absorption from degraded forest recovery, and
secondary vegetation dynamics. The results show an increase in
forest degradation's contribution to net emissions towards the end
of the period, related to the decrease in clear-cut deforestation
rates, decoupled from the forest degradation rates. The
spatially-explicit model allowed us to explore socio-economic and
environmental factors that influence forest degradation spatial
distribution and project future scenarios of degradation and CO2
emissions to the Brazilian Amazon. We built sustainable and
fragmentation land use scenarios and estimated their impacts on
CO2 emission. At the end of the simulation, most of them presented
a portion of up to 10% of forest degradation. However, in the
sustainable scenario, it was still possible to observe intact
forest regions, especially in eastern Amazonas. Our results also
showed that while net CO2 emissions from 2019-2050 added up 0.74
Gt CO2 in a sustainable scenario, in a fragmentation scenario,
this value reached 22.63 Gt CO2. RESUMO: Nos {\'u}ltimos anos, a
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal na Amaz{\^o}nia Legal brasileira
tem apresentado valores significativos, muitas vezes superiores ao
desmatamento. De agosto de 2006 a julho de 2018, a {\'a}rea
degradada totalizou 191.632 kmē, o que representa 2,4 vezes os
89.501 kmē desmatados no mesmo per{\'{\i}}odo. Os impactos da
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o incluem mudan{\c{c}}as na estrutura da
floresta, nos estoques de carbono e perda de biodiversidade e
tamb{\'e}m podem afetar o balan{\c{c}}o de CO2 e impactar as
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas futuras. Esta tese tem como
objetivo investigar os fatores relacionados {\`a}
distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espa{\c{c}}o-temporal da
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal nesta regi{\~a}o nos
{\'u}ltimos anos e como eles impactam o balan{\c{c}}o de CO2 na
regi{\~a}o. As secas e o desmatamento s{\~a}o alguns dos
principais fatores ligados {\`a} degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o
florestal. Sendo assim, foi analisada como a rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o
entre esses fatores e a degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal evoluiu
durante esse per{\'{\i}}odo, analisando tr{\^e}s indicadores:
indicador de anomalia de d{\'e}ficit h{\'{\i}}drico, indicador
de desmatamento hist{\'o}rico por corte raso e indicador de
{\'a}reas protegidas. Tamb{\'e}m foram analisadas
trajet{\'o}rias temporais de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal de
agosto de 2006 a julho de 2016 na Amaz{\^o}nia brasileira e
avaliamos seu impacto no balan{\c{c}}o de carbono regional,
combinando o processo de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o com processos
relacionados ao desmatamento (desmatamento por corte raso e
din{\^a}mica da vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o secund{\'a}ria), usando o
modelo espacialmente explicito de emiss{\~a}o de carbono INPE-EM.
Finalmente, foram explorados os fatores socioecon{\^o}micos e
ambientais que influenciam a distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial da
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal e projetados cen{\'a}rios
futuros de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o e emiss{\~o}es de CO2 para a
Amaz{\^o}nia brasileira. Os resultados apontaram que, durante os
anos mais secos da s{\'e}rie hist{\'o}rica, 80% dos eventos de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o ocorrem em {\'a}reas classificadas como de
seca. Em contrapartida, a ocorr{\^e}ncia de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal nessas {\'a}reas n{\~a}o
ultrapassa 50% quando considerado todo o per{\'{\i}}odo de
an{\'a}lise. Por outro lado, as rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o e desmatamento hist{\'o}rico foram, em
m{\'e}dia, 67% em todo o per{\'{\i}}odo. Al{\'e}m disso,
tamb{\'e}m foi mostrado que, em m{\'e}dia, 25% da
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o ocorreu em Territ{\'o}rios
Ind{\'{\i}}genas e 9% em Unidades de Conserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o. A
an{\'a}lise da trajet{\'o}ria apontou que 13% da {\'a}rea
degradada acabou sendo desmatada e convertida no per{\'{\i}}odo
e 61% da {\'a}rea degradada total sofreu apenas um evento de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao longo dos anos considerados. As
emiss{\~o}es l{\'{\i}}quidas somaram 5,4 Gt CO2, considerando
as emiss{\~o}es da degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o e desmatamento
florestal, absor{\c{c}}{\~a}o da recupera{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
floresta degradada e din{\^a}mica da vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o
secund{\'a}ria. Os resultados exibiram um aumento da
contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal para
as emiss{\~o}es l{\'{\i}}quidas no final do per{\'{\i}}odo,
relacionada {\`a} diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o das taxas de
desmatamento por corte raso, desacoplada das taxas de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal. O modelo espacialmente
expl{\'{\i}}cito nos permitiu explorar fatores
socioecon{\^o}micos e ambientais que influenciam a
distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial da degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o
florestal e projetar cen{\'a}rios futuros de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o e emiss{\~o}es de CO2 para a Amaz{\^o}nia
brasileira. Foram constru{\'{\i}}dos cen{\'a}rios de uso do
solo sustent{\'a}veis e de fragmenta{\c{c}}{\~a}o e estimamos
seus impactos nas emiss{\~o}es de CO2. Ao final da
simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o, a maioria deles apresentava uma parcela de
at{\'e} 10% de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal. Por{\'e}m, no
cen{\'a}rio sustent{\'a}vel, ainda foi poss{\'{\i}}vel
observar regi{\~o}es de floresta intacta, principalmente no leste
do Amazonas. Enquanto as emiss{\~o}es l{\'{\i}}quidas de CO2 de
2019 2050 somaram 0,74 Gt CO2 no cen{\'a}rio sustent{\'a}vel, no
cen{\'a}rio de fragmenta{\c{c}}{\~a}o esse valor atingiu 22,63
Gt CO2.",
committee = "Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud (presidente) and Aguiar, Ana
Paula Dutra de (orientadora) and Randow, Celso von (orientador)
and Nobre, Carlos Afonso (orientador) and Cesar, Erika de
Berenguer and Ferreira, Joice Nunes",
englishtitle = "Degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal na Amaz{\^o}nia brasileira:
padr{\~o}es espa{\c{c}}o temporais, fatores relacionados e
emiss{\~o}es de CO2.",
language = "en",
pages = "75",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/4388MN2",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/4388MN2",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}