@Article{MarengoCNRMTSAACDÁ:2020:AsDrDr,
               author = "Marengo, Jose Antonio and Cunha, Ana Paula M. A. and Nobre, Carlos 
                         Afonso and Ribeiro Neto, Germano G. and Magalh{\~a}es, Antonio R. 
                         and Torres, Roger R. and Sampaio, Gilvan and Alexandre, Felipe and 
                         Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Cuartas, Luz A. and Deusdar{\'a}, 
                         Karinne Reis Leal and {\'A}lvala, Regina C{\'e}lia S.",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo 
                         (USP)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Centro de Estudos 
                         Estrat{\'e}gicos (CGEE)} and {Universidade Federa de Itajub{\'a} 
                         (UNIFEI)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro 
                         Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under 
                         regional warming exceeding 4 degrees C",
              journal = "Natural Hazards",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "103",
               number = "2",
                pages = "2589--2611",
                month = "Sept.",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 2: Fome zero e Agricultura 
                         sustent{\'a}vel} and {Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: 
                         Vida terrestre}",
             keywords = "Vegetation stress hazard, Climate change, Caatinga, Northeast 
                         Brazil, Climate change impacts, Risk of aridization.",
             abstract = "Historically, during periods of extreme drought, food security in 
                         the drylands of the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is 
                         under severe risk due to agricultural collapse. The drought that 
                         started in 2012 continues to highlight the vulnerability of this 
                         region, and arid conditions have been detected during the last 
                         years mainly in the central semiarid region, covering almost 2% of 
                         the NEB. Climate projections show an increase in the area under 
                         water stress condition, covering 49% and 54% of the NEB region by 
                         2700 and 2100, respectively, with a higher likelihood with warming 
                         above 4 degrees C. The projections of vegetative stress conditions 
                         derived from the empirical model for Vegetation Health Index (VHI) 
                         are consistent with projections from vegetation models, where 
                         semi-desert types typical of arid conditions would replace the 
                         current semiarid bushland vegetation ({"}caatinga{"}) by 2100. Due 
                         to the impacts of the 2012-2017 drought, public policies have been 
                         implemented to reduce social and economic vulnerability for small 
                         farmers but are not enough as poor population continues to be 
                         affected. In the long term, to make the semiarid less vulnerable 
                         to drought, strengthened integrated water resources management and 
                         a proactive drought policy are needed to restructure the economy. 
                         Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal climate forecasting 
                         provides means of assessing impacts of climate variability and 
                         change, leading to disaster risk reduction through early warning. 
                         Lastly, there is an urgent need for integrated assessments because 
                         the possibility that under permanent drought conditions with 
                         warming above 4 degrees C, arid conditions would prevail in NEB 
                         since 2060.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s11069-020-04097-3",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04097-3",
                 issn = "0921-030X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Marengo2020_Article_AssessingDroughtInTheDrylandsO.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "26 abr. 2024"
}